619
FNUS73 KARX 231232
FWSARX

Spot Forecast for Weaver Dunes Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
732 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (608) 784-8292 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Looks for mostly sunny skies at ignition with daytime cumulus
clouds developing during the afternoon hours. Mixing heights
increase to 6-7 kft in the afternoon, thus while south to
southwest winds will be light during the day, ventilation rates
will still be excellent. The deeper mixing will result in RH
values falling through the day to around 35 percent in the mid-
afternoon. The threat for showers and thunderstorms increases after
midnight and through much of the day on Friday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........71 at ignition...Max 81.
RH..................55 percent at ignition...Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    south 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL at ignition...increasing to
                    7400 ft AGL towards midday.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /31500 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /101800 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  20  26  32  36  39  35  31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............71  74  76  77  78  80  80  80
RH..............55  46  42  40  39  38  38  38
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   4   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.11  11  12  13  13  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 5.7 6.7 7.2 7.4 7.3 6.7 6.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  16  16  15  15  16  15  16
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100032  80  94  94  97  102 88  85

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms after 3 am.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 40 percent after 3 am.
Temperature.........Min 58.
RH..................Max 75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph early in the evening,
                    then becoming southeast around 5 mph after 3 am.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (59900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........17     8      20     29     44     66
Weather cov.....                                   S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   S CHC
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      20
Temp............81     75     67     64     61     59
RH..............37     45     61     65     70     75
20 ft wind......S 6    SE 3   SE 3   SE 3   SE 3   SE 5
20 ft wind gust.13     9      8      9      11     13
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   700    600    600    700    700
Transport wind..S 17   S 12   S 13   SE 13  SE 14  SE 15
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100060     7      7      7      8      9

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers in the
                    morning. Chance of thunderstorms through the
                    day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
CWR.................90 percent.
Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 11 mph with gusts to
                    around 21 mph shifting to the southwest 9 to 10
                    mph with gusts to around 21 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 21 mph shifting to the west around
                    18 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (77700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........84     93     92     89     81     67
Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............60     90     70     70     70     60
Temp............60     62     66     70     71     72
RH..............78     78     75     68     66     59
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 8   SE 9   S 10   S 11   SW 10
20 ft wind gust.14     18     20     21     21     21
Mix hgt (ft)....800    1300   2200   3300   4100   4900
Transport wind..S 14   SE 21  S 21   S 20   SW 20  W 18
Haines index....4      3      3      3      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100010     23     40     56     70     78

$$
Forecaster...KS
Requested by...Matt Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414984.0/ARX
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org