996
AXNT20 KNHC 270553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 10N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N southward
between 30W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/69W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, are from 20N southward between 54W and 73W. The
24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
27/0000 UTC, are: 1.16 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.
Moisture associated with this wave will spread to the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico from tonight into Monday. Everything will
reach the Dominican Republic on Monday. Gusty winds and locally
heavy rain are possible, especially in mountainous areas, leading
to possible flash floods. Numerous strong rainshowers are in
Venezuela from 06N to 09N between 65W and 67W. Please, refer to
bulletins and forecasts that are from your local weather bureau
office for more detailed information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau close to 12N16W, to 07N19W,, and to 06N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N21W, to 06N33W, and then along 03N/04N between
35W and 47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak east-to-west oriented ridge covers the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate seas are in the open waters of the western half of the
Gulf. Slight seas are in the coastal waters from 90W westward,
and in the entire eastern half of the area. Fresh to strong SE
winds are from 20N to 24N between 93W and 97W. Moderate to fresh
SE winds are elsewhere from 90W westward. Mostly moderate SE
winds are from 90W eastward.

A medium concentration of smoke, and hazy conditions, are in the
western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Agricultural fires are in SE
Mexico and in the Yucatan Peninsula.

A relatively weak high pressure ridge will continue to extend
from the western Atlantic across the E Gulf into the upcoming
week. This will maintain a weak pressure pattern over the basin.
Mostly moderate to fresh SE to S winds will exist W of 87W through
early Mon while light to gentle SE to S winds will exist E of
87W. The winds W of 87W will shift to W of 90W afterwards while
winds east of 87W generally become light and variable, except S of
26N where they become gentle NE to E winds. Seas will be slight
to moderate during the period. A weak cold front will move across
the far NE Gulf Mon and Mon night, followed by gentle W to NW
winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the northern and
western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons and at night
through Tue, then pulse to mostly fresh speeds afterwards.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is sending cyclonic wind flow from the
Yucatan Peninsula to the Windward Passage. The affected areas
include the Bahamas, Cuba, and parts of Central America. A
Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/69W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The upper level trough, and
abundant northward-moving tropical moisture, will continue to
enhance the development of rainshowers in the Caribbean Sea,
especially in Puerto Rico and in Hispaniola, from tonight into
Monday. A dense concentration of smoke is in the Gulf of Honduras,
due to inland northern Central America agricultural fires.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond
85W in the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong is within
90 nm on either side of the 05N78W 08N76W 11N73W, in the coastal
plains and in the coastal waters of Colombia and Panama.

Fresh to strong SE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of
Honduras. Fresh SE winds cover the rest of the NW corner of the
area that is from 15N northward between 82W and 87W. Moderate to
fresh SE winds are on the eastern side of the 67W/69W tropical
wave. Moderate to fresh NE winds are on the western side of the
tropical wave. Moderate seas are from the western half of the
coastal waters of Honduras to the Yucatan Channel. Moderate seas
are in parts of the south central sections of the Caribbean Sea.
Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure over the W Atlantic will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across the basin, except for fresh to
strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Mon night.
Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean are
forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds late Mon night
through early Wed, diminishing back to moderate to fresh speeds
afterwards. A tropical wave with axis along the Mona Passage will
continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the NE
Caribbean through early Mon, as it continues its track to the W
Caribbean by the middle of the week. Strong gusty winds, lightning
and rough seas accompany this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through 31N57W, to 26N64W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 23N to 28N
between 50W and 56W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate rainshowers are in the remainder of the areas
that are between 50W and 70W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 13N northward from
50W eastward.

Moderate to rough seas are from 16N to 22N from 30W eastward.
Moderate seas are from 31N32W 24N45W 27N56W 20N60W eastward.
Slight seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly
fresh to some strong NE winds are from 29N20W 26N33W 19N45W 16N60W
southward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A trough extends from 31N57W to 26N63W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms moving eastward are between 23N and 28N and east of
56W. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure elsewhere will
change little during the next few days. The associated gradient
will support mostly moderate winds and seas north of the Bahamas
and off NE Florida by Mon night as the high pressure shifts
eastward ahead of a weakening cold front that will move across the
waters north of the Bahamas Tue into midweek. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds will precede the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may accompany the front.

$$
mt/nr