156
AXNT20 KNHC 232318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri May 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep-layered trough
currently extending from the western Atlantic well offshore of
North Carolina S-SW across central Cuba to Costa Rica is
promoting unstable atmospheric conditions from Colombia north and
northeastward across the Caribbean and western Atlantic between
75W and 60W. This feature will lift slowly northeastward and into
the Atlantic this afternoon through early Sat, and will combine
with abundant tropical moisture to support widespread deep
convection across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands through late Fri. The latest model guidance
suggests the highest rainfall accumulations will occur across
southern Hispaniola through Friday. Residents in the above
locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and
potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather
office for more specific information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located along 47W, from 13N southward and
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 01.5N to 11N between 43W and 51W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
12N16W, then curves southwestward across 08N19W to 07N19W. The
ITCZ continues westward from 05N23W to 05N42W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 01N to 09N between 25W and
44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Stable atmospheric conditions generally prevail across the Gulf.
A broad surface ridge persists from the southeastern U.S.
southwestward to the central Gulf. Smoke and haze produced by
agricultural fires in Mexico is lingering over the western and
central Gulf. Latest observations indicate reduced visibilities of
4 to 6 nm mainly across the western Gulf. Moderate with locally
fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen over the western
and south-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to
4 ft seas prevail across the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in
Mexico will continue across all but NE portions of the Gulf
through tonight. High pressure will remain NE of the basin through
the end of the week, producing moderate to locally fresh E to SE
winds across the waters W of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds E
of 90W. Winds will become SE to S basin-wide tonight through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Significant
Rainfall Event.

A pronounced mid to upper-level trough extends from the western
Atlantic well offshore of North Carolina south southwestward
across the northwest Bahamas, and across central Cuba to Costa
Rica is providing a broad zone of lift and upper divergent flow
across the central basin. Together with a surface trough through
eastern Cuba focusing abundant moisture across the central basin,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
from Colombia and western Venezuela, north and northeastward
across the Caribbean between eastern Cuba and the Windward
Passage. Moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft are present across the basin E of 74W, except for seas 5
to 7 ft across the waters south of Haiti. Moderate to locally
fresh winds are across the Gulf of Honduras and between Jamaica
and eastern Cuba. Gentle E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail
elsewhere.

Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America persists
across the Gulf of Honduras, and offshore from Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. Latest observations reveal reduced visibilities of 4 to 6
nm.

For the forecast, a strong deep-layered trough will support
active weather across the central portions of the basin, which
will gradually shift NE and into the Atlc through Fri night. A
broad and weak trough will prevail across the north-central
Caribbean tonight through Sat, yielding moderate trade winds
across the E portions and moderate to fresh winds across NW
portions of the basin. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central
America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, and spreads NW to
the Yucatan coast.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp deep-layered trough extends from well offshore of North
Carolina south-southwestward across the NW Bahamas, central Cuba
and to the SW Caribbean. Broad scale lift induced by this feature
and strong divergent flow aloft to the east of the trough axis are
coupling with modest convergent southerly surface winds near a
surface trough over the NW Bahamas to generate scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from the northern Caribbean across the
Greater Antilles to the Atlantic, S of 29N between 60W and 76W.
The heaviest rainfall in recent hours has been occurring across
the eastern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters to the north and
northeast.

A weak surface trough enters our waters near 31N33W to 27N43W.
No significant convection is noted with this feature. A broad and
weak surface ridge is anchored by a 1021 high center near 26N36W,
and is supporting gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
north of 23.5N between 35W and 74W. NW of the trough across the
NW Bahamas, gentle NE winds prevail with seas of 2 to 4 ft. South
of 23.5N between 64.5W and 72W winds are fresh to locally strong
with seas 5 to 8 ft. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh NE
to E winds with seas 5 to 8 ft. With the exception of seas to 9 ft
between the Cape Verde Islands and the W coast of Africa.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough over the Bahamas will
weaken and dissipate through Fri. A second surface trough
extending through the Windward Passage, across the SE Bahamas to
25N67W will drift eastward through Sat. Weak low pressure is
expected to develop along the trough just N of Hispaniola tonight
and shift N-NE through Sat, moving N of 31N Sat night. The low
will be accompanied by fresh to locally strong winds and active
weather Fri through Sat.

$$
AReinhart