561
AXNT20 KNHC 242317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall Event in the Caribbean: Satellite imagery
shows that a weak area of low pressure has formed several hundred
miles southwest of Bermuda near 25.5N70W. This system is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions are not conducive, some slight
subtropical or tropical development is possible over the next
couple of days while the system moves generally northeastward.
Aloft, a very pronounced deep-layered trough extends southwestward
from 30N73W across eastern Cuba and into the SW Caribbean Sea
limiting the tropical development in the area. A band of moisture
will persist ahead of the trough axis over Hispaniola, Puerto
Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands. Locally heavy rain may occur
over these locations through the upcoming weekend, particularly
over Hispaniola. Residents in the above locations should remain
alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding.
Please refer to your local weather office for more specific
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of the season has its axis along 55W
from 12N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave
axis S of 10N. The wave appears to enhance convection over parts
of French Guiana and Suriname. Latest scatterometer pass
captured the wind shift associated with the wave axis. The wave
will cross the Windward Islands on Sat. Gusty winds and active
weather are expected with the wave.

Of note: On average, about 60 waves are generated over North Africa
each year, but it appears that the number that is formed has no
relationship to how much tropical cyclone activity there is over
the Atlantic each year. While only 60% of the Atlantic tropical
storms and minor hurricanes originate from easterly waves, nearly
85% of the intense (or major) hurricanes have their origins as
easterly waves.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W, then continues
SW to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to near the Brazil/
French Guiana border. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 02N to 05N between 40W and 40W, and from 02N
to 10N between 47W and 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to fresh SE
winds over the western half of the Gulf with seas of 3 to 5 ft,
and gentle to moderate SE winds over the eastern half of it with
seas of 1 to 3 ft. The latest surface observations confirm reduced
visibilities and hazy conditions across the western Gulf, due to
smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico. In addition,
visible satellite imagery also confirmed the presence of the
smoke extending northward from the Bay of Campeche creating hazy
conditions.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to
shift east-southeastward starting Sun. Moderate to fresh winds
over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the
eastern Gulf are expected to continue through the weekend,
except for winds becoming light and variable over most of the
eastern Gulf through early next week. A cold front will move
across the NE Gulf from late Tue through Wed night, followed by
gentle to moderate west to northwest winds. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula
during the late afternoons and at night through the period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Significant
Rainfall Event impacting Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Scattered showers are isolated thunderstorms are noted over parts
of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Convection has also flared-up
over northern Colombia and western Venezuela. A diffluent
pattern aloft supports this convective activity. Recent
satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh E to SE
winds in the Gulf of Honduras, where smoke from agricultural
fires in Honduras continues to reduce visibilities to 3 nm.
Please exercise caution in areas of dense smoke. Elsewhere, light
to gentle trades are noted across the basin, with the exception
of moderate winds over the far SE Caribbean. Seas are generally
in the 3 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, the very pronounced deep-layer trough previously
mentioned will lift east-northeastward across Hispaniola through
Sat night. Active weather east of the trough will gradually shift
northeastward into the Atlantic through Sat night. A rather weak
pressure pattern across the region will maintain generally moderate
trade winds across the basin, except for moderate to fresh winds
over the northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea through late Sun
night. Afterwards, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected
over the Caribbean through the middle of next week, except for
light to gentle winds over the northern part of the northwestern
Caribbean. The wave, currently along 55W will cross the Windward
Islands late Sat afternoon into Sat night, move through the
eastern Caribbean Sun through Mon night, then become ill-defined
as it approaches the central Caribbean Tue. Gusty winds and
active weather are expected with the wave. Smoke due to agricultural
fires in Central America may persist across the Gulf of Honduras
tonight into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The deep-layered trough responsible for heavy rainfall across
Hispaniola continues to move north and east away from the Greater
Antilles. At the surface, 1012 mb low pressure is centered near
25.5N70W, along a surface trough extending from 28N62W to the
low center to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers with embedded
thunderstorms are associated with these systems affecting mainly
the waters N of 20N between 60W and 72W. The trough is helping
to induce some convective activity over eastern Cuba. High
pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters.
Based on satellite derived wind data, mainly gentle to moderate
winds are noted N of 20N while moderate to locally fresh trades
are S of 20N. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, regarding the aforementioned low,
although environmental conditions are not conducive, some slight
subtropical or tropical development is possible over the next
couple of days while the system moves generally northeastward.
Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will remain over the
region for the next few days. Looking ahead, moderate winds and
seas are possible north of the Bahamas and off northeast Florida
by Mon night as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold
front expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast Mon night,
move across the waters east of northern Florida early on Tue,
reach from near 31N79W to east-central Florida early on Wed and
from near 31N78W to 29N79W and stationary to east-central Florida
Wed night.

$$
GR