593
FXUS61 KBGM 270801
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
401 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong system will bring locally heavy rain and a chance for
thunderstorms today. A few storms may become severe this
afternoon and evening. Additional scattered showers will linger
through midweek, with drier conditions expected towards the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

4 AM Update...

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the
region today. Big question will be the amount of destabilization
that can occur before the main shortwave arrives this afternoon.
On-going convection across the Ohio Valley this morning will
continue pushing E-NE through the morning and reaches our
forecast area by late morning/early this afternoon. At this
time, it looks like we will be in a strong shear, but limited
instability environment. CAPE values will top out at 500 - 1000
J/kg, with the higher end of that threshold only expected if
some clearing is able to occur later this morning. 0-1 km shear
is quite strong at about 40 knots and plenty of helicity will
exist as EHI approaches a value of 2 across NE PA this afternoon.
Although instability is expected to be low, the high low level
shear values are a concern, as this can lead to an isolated
tornado or two from a relatively low-topped thunderstorm or even
convective shower. SPC has expanded the slight risk across most
of our forecast area, however the greatest tornado threat will
remain across NE PA, where low level shear will be maximized.

Other than the severe thunderstorm threat, there is also a
concern for flash flooding. A flood watch was considered, but
confidence is still too low at this time and after discussing
with surrounding weather forecast offices, the decision was made
to hold of on a watch for now. Localized heavy rainfall, over 3"
will be possible, but this will be dependent on the amount of
training and back building that will be able to occur. We will
continue to highlight this threat in the HWO.

Finally, the thunderstorms and heavy rain threat will push east
of the area during the evening hours. Conditions will be quiet
overnight, however the break won`t last too long. Upper trough
swings in overhead on Tuesday and more showers and thunderstorms
are likely to develop during the late morning to early
afternoon. These storms will be less potent than today, and not
expecting much in the way of impacts on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update...

A long wave trough sitting over the NE US will be the main
weather driver for the period, bringing cooler temperatures and
rain showers.

On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will push through the region with
an associated surface low north of the area over Canada. Diurnal
heating combined with the lift from the shortwave will bring a
chance for afternoon rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
With the weak forcing, lack of deep moisture, and cool
temperatures, severe weather is not expected at this time. Flow
during the day progressively shifts westerly, bringing a cooler
airmass overhead. Temps will climb into the upper 60s to low
70s across much of the region, with some of the warmer valleys
climbing into the mid 70s.

Tuesday night should be dry for most as the trough exits the
region to the ENE. Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to
low 50s thanks to cool WNW flow. Conditions will not stay quiet
for long as another trough, this time positively tilted, moves
into the region from the NW. This will continue to push cooler
air into the region, with temps on Wednesday only climbing into
the low to mid 60s for most, and upper 60s to low 70s in NEPA.
There is still some uncertainty in the latest guidance as to
how the trough will unfold, with some showing most of the rain
missing us to the south, while others have light scattered rain
showers across the area. Given this synoptic pattern, severe
weather is not expected. The trough swings through the area by
the evening, ushering in much drier air and colder from Canada.
Temps Wednesday night will fall into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
345 PM Update...

A positively tilted upper level trough remains overhead
Thursday into Friday, continuing NW flow and cooler
temperatures for the end of the work week. Suppression from a
surface high building into the region combined with a lack of
moisture in the atmosphere will keep conditions dry. Temps will
be in the 60s for highs and 40s for lows. A strong ridge builds
into the area on Friday night, making for quite a lovely
weekend. Temps will slowly warm as the ridge slides east,
bringing seasonable temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A potent system will push through the region today with numerous
rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible as well gusty
winds. IFR conditions are expected at times during heavy rain
and thunderstorms with the heaviest storms likely occurring
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will wind down this
evening, but restrictions will be possible in lingering stratus
and fog overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Occasional restrictions likely from
multiple batches of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MPK