560
FXUS61 KBGM 201831
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
231 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm, early summer weather pattern will be over the region
through midweek. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
gradually increase, especially by Wednesday and Thursday. The
weather looks to turn mainly dry and seasonably warm for Friday
into the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend, although a scattered
shower can`t be ruled out.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

230 PM Update

Some cumulus clouds are developing this afternoon, with MLCAPE
reaching 600-1200 J/Kg over the forecast area and LIs down
around -3. An inhibiting factor is the weak mid level lapse
rates around 6C/km and low level dry air, with sfc Tds only in
the mid-50s to lower 60s. CAMs such as the 12z 3km NAM and HRRR
continue to show an isolated storm or two popping up over the
western Finger Lakes and/or Central southern tier region heading
into the early evening hours. With light winds through the
column and basically no deep layer shear, any storms that do pop
up will be pulse type and shouldn`t last very long or become
organized. The weather turns quiet overnight, with some patchy
fog possible...mainly in the valleys. Mild with lows in the
upper 50s to 60s.

Tuesday starts off quiet in the morning, with mostly sunny
skies. A weak wave rides over the top of the ridge in the
afternoon, which could spark off a few showers and t`storms. The
main timing for these looks to be about 2 PM to 9 PM. Mixed
Layer instability will reach 800-1200 J/Kg with deep layer shear
increasing a bit...upwards of 20-30 kts. SPC is carrying a
marginal risk for severe hail and wind just to the north of our
CWA for the afternoon and evening hours...so we will need to
keep a close eye on any storms that do form over Central NY and
the Mohawk Valley region. Otherwise, outside of the convective
activity it will be partly to mostly sunny and hot, with highs
in the mid-80s to low 90s over the region.Leaned toward the
bias corrected guidance and NBM25-50th percentile, which was a
bit higher than the Operational NBM...as that seemed too low
based recent trends. Dew points are in the upper 50s to low 60s,
so it won`t feel overly humid.

After any lingering evening convection, Tuesday night is quiet
and warm once again, under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures
hold in the 60s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will move off the east coast Tuesday night. This
will result in a continued warming trend through Wednesday with
southwesterly winds. Most locations should rise well into the
80`s with a few locations close to 90 on Wednesday as the NBM
has caught on to the overall pattern. With dewpoints only around
60, heat index values should not be much higher. Lows generally
in the 60`s at both Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Highs
Thursday trend several degrees cooler with the frontal passage.

A frontal boundary still looks to move in later Wednesday and
Thursday to break down the ridge. Enough lift and moisture looks
present for at least some scattered showers with the frontal
passage. Instability during the afternoons surface CAPE is
currently modeled to be around 1,000 J/KG each afternoon and
evening so some thunderstorms will be possible as well. Still
some timing differences with the operational models and ensemble
guidance with the frontal timing. The instability part has been
fairly consistent on the operational models and respective
ensembles if we can get some convection in the afternoon and
evening Wednesday and or Thursday. A first look at model
soundings shows steep low level lapse rates with some mid-level
dry air as well later Wednesday. With a fair amount of shear as
well, the potential is present for some strong storms with gusty
winds and hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Seeing some signal in the ensemble guidance along with the
latest 00Z 5/20 ECMWF that the front may check up not to far
south of the area Thursday night through the weekend. So while
the upcoming weekend looks mainly dry, isolated showers or
thunderstorms can not be ruled out across NE PA closer to the
front. Temperatures trend cooler with lows in the 50`s and in
the 70`s generally.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overall, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for just about
all of our TAF sites over the next 24 hours. ELM may see a short
period of fog or mist; mainly between 08-12z early Tuesday
morning. Exact extent and vsby reduction is still uncertain at
this time, but for now, limited it to MVFR restrictions here.

Otherwise, expect a mix of FEW/SCT mid level cumulus and high
thin cirrus clouds out there through this taf period. Winds are
light, and variable with a diurnal component...under 10 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Patchy early
morning valley fog possible. Also isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms around.

Friday and Saturday...VFR expected. Moderate to high confidence.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MJM