586
FXUS63 KBIS 301703
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1203 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will exit the Turtle Mountains
  and James River Valley early this afternoon. An isolated
  shower or thunderstorm may move into the northwest late this
  afternoon.

- Temperatures will be slightly cooler today and Friday, then
  temperatures warm through the weekend and into early next
  week.

- Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm chances
  Friday. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will then
  return Sunday and through the first half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to track north
and east today, exiting the forecast area early this afternoon.
Made some minor adjustments to pops through the early afternoon.
A blend of short term guidance resulted in slightly cooler
temperatures north central this afternoon. Temperatures in the
west are near forecast highs but probably won`t warm much this
afternoon, but they may climb just above their current forecast
highs into the low to mid 60s. Updated text products will be
transmitted shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 755 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Quick update for pops this morning. Showers are noted over
western ND so pulled pops back a little farther west through the
morning hours. Otherwise no changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Showers continue over much of the forecast area as a low
pressure circulation exists over north central/northwest ND.
This maintains a cluster of showers in the northwest and north
central, while another cluster is moving into the southwest and
south central from South Dakota. Adjusted PoPs based on the
latest observations and radar imagery. There`s been very few
lightning strikes observed through the night. However,
maintained a slight chance of thunder through the morning hours.
These showers, along with the occasional rumble of thunder, are
still expected to gradually end from west to east this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

As a surface trough propagates eastward this morning, showers,
along with a few thunderstorms, will continue ending from west
to east. By noon, most precipitation will have ended, although
there may be a few lingering showers and thunderstorms mainly
in the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains.
Isolated to scattered showers, perhaps with a few rumbles of
thunder, may wrap into the northwest this afternoon and evening.

Quasi-stationary upper low over south central Canada will
persist this afternoon through Sunday night. As a result, a
couple more shortwaves will impact the area. The first one is
Friday afternoon and evening where scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible. The second one is sometime Sunday
into Sunday night where additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop. A few severe thunderstorms aren`t
totally out of the question on Sunday as supported by CSU
machine learning.

Once the quasi-stationary upper low becomes more progressive and
kicks off to the east Sunday night into Monday, a trailing, yet
subtle ridge will meander over the area. This will lead to dry
conditions and slightly warmer temperatures in the west. Models
are in fair agreement that another upper low/trough may pass
through sometime Monday night through Tuesday night, which could
generate additional showers and thunderstorms.

Overall, cooler conditions are on tap for today with highs
mainly in the 60s west to low 70s east. There will be a very
subtle overall warming trend through early next week. However,
highs are forecast to remain seasonable to seasonably warm from
Saturday through the first half of next week. Lows will be
mainly in the 40s tonight and Friday night before reaching
mostly the 50s for the remainder of the period. Other than
tonight and in the west Friday night, these too are seasonable
to seasonably warm for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity should be exiting the
James River Valley early in the forecast period and may need to
carry a VCTS/VCSH at KJMS very early on in the period. Otherwise
precipitation has exited the forecast area. Additional isolated
shower activity may move into the northwest late this afternoon but
for now will not include a VCSH. Westerly surface winds today
generally 15 to 25 knots. Winds will diminish to 5-10 knots this
evening and generally southwest to west, and will begin to pick
up late in the morning Friday. Once activity exits the KJMS
area VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area
through the period.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH