340
FXUS63 KBIS 280545
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is possible tonight across northern and western
  North Dakota, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

- Mainly dry conditions with near to slightly below average
  temperatures expected for Tuesday.

- Windy and warmer conditions on Wednesday. Isolated strong to
  severe storms are possible across the west later in the day
  Wednesday through Wednesday night.

- Through the end of the workweek, chances for showers and
  thunderstorms return with temperatures remaining near to
  slightly above average.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A few showers and thundershowers continue in the southern
forecast area, especially south of I94 and east of the Missouri
River. These showers and thundershowers should exit the forecast
area within the next couple to few hours.

UPDATE
Issued at 948 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue south of the
Highway 2 corridor, with the most activity in south central
North Dakota. Small hail will be the primary hazard with any
thunderstorms that develop, with very low freezing levels that
make it easy for small hail to form. We did just have multiple
reports of pea-sized hail in north and central Bismarck from a
small thunderstorm that developed just northwest of town.

The latest high-res guidance has this activity moving southeast
and slowly diminishing, exiting our southeast counties
overnight. Patchy fog is also possible overnight mainly west and
north where clouds will clear a bit quicker, but latest guidance
lowered this potential so did cut back on patchy fog area a bit
with this update.

UPDATE
Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across
southern and western portions of the forecast area, in an
environment with 15 to 20 knots of bulk shear and less than 1000
J/kg of bouyancy, per RAP-based mesoanalysis. Additional showers
are moving into northern North Dakota from across the
International Border, but no lightning is expected with this
activity. Freshened up POPs and used coverage wording through
the evening, but otherwise going forecast looks good.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A weak boundary followed by a mid level shortwave will continue
to bring isolated showers and thunderstorms through this
evening. MUCAPE of near 1000 J/KG and effective shear of
around 30 knots could bring some small hail. CAPE profiles
overall look skinny, thus hail is expected to be generally less
than an inch in diameter, although cannot rule out an isolated
stronger pulse like storm producing hail to around an inch in
diameter. DCAPE today is fairly low, although some inverted V
soundings are present. An isolated gusty wind 50 to 60 MPH could
be possible with the stronger storms today, although small hail
will likely be the main threat with any thunderstorms. Behind
this wave tonight will be a surface high moving in. This will
lessen the winds and bring clearing skies. Overnight low
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Some areas across the north central could get close to patchy
frost, although the temperatures are overall expected to remain
above frost criteria tonight. These light winds and cooling
temps could bring about patchy to areas of fog. For now patchy
fog has been placed in the forecast for much of the area and
will have to be monitored for tonight into Tuesday morning.
Surface high moves eastward Tuesday while an upper level ridge
buildings overhead. The result will be mainly clear skies and
light winds. Areas in the west closer to the building ridge
will be warmer and in the 70s, while eastern areas look to
remain below normal and in the 60s. An increasing pressure
gradient could then bring some breezy winds to the west Tuesday
night. Dry conditions look to remain, while overnight lows
remain in the 40s.

Developing low on Wednesday will bring a breezy to windy
southerly flow. This will also help warm temperatures back into
the 70s for most areas. SPC continues a marginal risk for severe
weather Wednesday through Wednesday night. This still all
depends on timing of the surface low development and then
passage of a cold front. It is interesting to note that high
amounts of instability are starting to be forecast. The ECMWF
EFI even bringing elevated numbers for areas in this marginal
risk. There does still appear to be a lack of shear with most
models putting 0 to 6 km in the 30 to 40 knot range. EFI
CAPE/Shear values are also quite low. Given the modest cape and
shear, a wind and hail threat will be the biggest concerns. Some
convective parameters hint that a nonzero tornado threat is
possible in the southwest. Hodographs do show some turn in the
atmosphere present, although the best veering is more in the 0
to 3 KM layer. 0 to 1 km shear is also elevated. STP values may
peak around 1, yet are mostly below 1. So overall Confidence in
an isolated tornado threat is still low, especially given the
overall lack of shear. The associated cold front then moves
through Wednesday night into Thursday. Perhaps along this front
a line of strong to severe storms could be found with a wind and
hail threat also possible. Wind especially may be of concern
with increasing 0 to 3 KM shear and elevated amounts of DCAPE.
Depending on timing of this front the stronger storm threat
could push eastward quickly through the day Thursday. Behind
this front looks to be slightly cooler temperatures and some
breezy westerly winds.

Friday through the weekend a broad trough to almost zonal flow
pattern could then setup. This may help keep temperatures near
to slightly above average. The unsettled nature of this pattern
has also allowed for at least slight PoPs each day from the NBM.
Those could increase if more well defined waves move through
this pattern. Something to monitor going
forward. CSU-MLP currently not showing much for chances of
severe weather with this feature.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A few showers and thundershowers are present mainly south of
I94 and east of the Missouri River. These will exit the area
over the next couple to few hours. Patchy fog may develop in
the west over the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR ceilings and
visibility are generally expected through the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Telken