375
FXUS63 KBIS 271755
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1255 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. High
  temperatures will generally be in the 60s.

- Generally dry conditions and warming temperatures Tuesday
  into Wednesday.

- Later Wednesday through the end of the workweek, chances for
  showers and thunderstorms return with temperatures remaining
  near to slightly above average.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are starting to develop along a
surface boundary across the north, close to the shortwave
expected to move across the area today. Coverage will continue
to increased through the afternoon and linger into this evening
across the CWA. MUCAPE of near 1000 J/KG and effective shear of
around 30 knots could bring some small hail. CAPE profiles
overall look skinny, thus hail is expected to be an inch in
diameter or less. Most storms should be less than the severe
criteria although, cannot rule out an isolated stronger pulse
like storm. DCAPE today is fairly low, although some inverted V
soundings are present. An isolated gusty wind 50 to 60 MPH could
be possible with the stronger storms today, although small hail
will likely be the main threat with any thunderstorms. Overall
the forecast remains on track, with some minor updates to PoPs
based on current trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Limited updates needed this morning. Some patchy fog is possible
in the far north central through the rest of the morning,
although for the most part fog has diminished. Showers and also
mostly diminished this morning, although some lower clouds in
the east could bring an isolated sprinkle this morning. As an
upper level trough rotates through today, more showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop. Severe weather is still
not expected. A few sites along and south of the interstate are
seeing winds slightly higher than previous forecast. Perhaps
this trend continues through the afternoon. Raised winds
slightly for these areas.

UPDATE
Issued at 641 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas of fog, occasionally dense, have developed in the north
central early this morning. Therefore, an SPS has been issued
until 9 am CDT. Fog should rapidly dissipate this morning as the
sun continues to rise. Otherwise, a few showers continue in the
southeastern forecast area. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Upper low pressure is present over northeastern
Manitoba/northwestern Ontario. This will move off to the east
today as it merges with an upper low currently situated over
the Great Lakes Region. In the process, another shortwave off
the west side of the low will drive down through the forecast
area. This will help generate isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon that will taper off from northwest
to southeast during evening and early overnight hours.

Trailing upper ridge will slide across the Northern Plains
Tuesday through Wednesday. This will provide a brief break from
the active pattern. At the surface, the forecast area will be
sandwiched between high pressure in the east and low pressure
in the west on Wednesday. This will generate breezy southerly
winds over at least the western half of the state. The result
being the warmest temperatures of the workweek. Even so,
temperatures won`t be overly warm and are forecast to range
from near average in the east to seasonably warm in the west.

The break in the active pattern will likely be short-lived as
the next upper low slides across southern Canada and drives a
stronger trough through the region starting Wednesday evening. A
little severe weather in the west isn`t entirely out of the
question later Wednesday as deterministic models suggest a
narrow window of 30 kt or greater 0 to 6 km bulk shear with over
2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This is supported by CSU machine learning
which would bring a slight risk into the far southwest, as well
as SPC which has a marginal risk for the far west. Whether
severe weather occurs or not will be highly dependent on the
timing of the wave and whether it reaches western ND before the
loss of the best instability.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will then persist through the
day Thursday. At this time, the severe threat Thursday looks low
with perhaps slightly higher shear, but far less instability.
Though of course, this can definitely change from now between
then. An additional shortwave or two off the same upper low
will produce continued precipitation chances through Friday and
possibly into the weekend.

Overall temperatures through the week look seasonable with highs
mostly in the 60s and 70s. Meanwhile, lows look to drop into the
40s to low 50s most nights. Ensembles suggest a warming trend is
then favored towards the very end of the period, or rather,
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the forecast
period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
return this afternoon through this evening. Coverage is expected
to be slightly less than yesterday, thus used VCTS for most TAF
sites. Small hail and gusty winds could be possible with any
stronger storm, as well as brief MVFR conditions. Thunderstorm
coverage diminishes tonight, and by Tuesday morning mainly clear
skies are expected. The rest of Tuesday looks to see mostly
clear skies and VFR conditions. Breezy northwest winds today
will become light and variable tonight. An north to northeast
wind will then be found on Tuesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Anglin