264
FNUS73 KBIS 201149
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Ghylin...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
649 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies today with a northwest wind
15 mph at ignition time with gust to around 25 mph, continuing through
early afternoon. Winds should then diminish a bit mid to late afternoon
and shift to the north. The forecast high is 65 degrees. Poor smoke dispersal
this morning will increase to good in the afternoon. At max heating this
afternoon the mixing height is expected to be near 6700 feet.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 15 mph at ignition time. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    in the morning and early afternoon. Winds then diminishing
                    and shifting to the north mid to late afternoon.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (22800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (78000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........70  66  64  61  58  60  61  62  69
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............45  49  55  57  58  61  63  64  64
RH..............93  82  69  64  59  53  46  43  43
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..15  15  14  13  12  11  10  9   8
20 FT wind gust.22  24  22  19  17  15  14  14  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.0 6.5 6.7
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.14  15  16  16  17  16  15  13  12
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..23  39  51  59  72  76  78  72  67

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 5 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 10 mph shifting to the east 6 to 9
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (59600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........75     80     76     71     71     75
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............63     61     54     51     48     46
RH..............44     49     64     71     80     83
20 ft wind......N 7    N 5    NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   E 5
20 ft wind gust.10     8      8      8      8      9
Mix hgt (ft)....6600   1400   500    300    300    300
Transport wind..N 10   N 7    NE 6   NE 9   E 9    E 8
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..60     8      2      3      3      2

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 11 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 14 mph shifting to the northeast in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (80500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........70        70        74        74
Weather cov.....                    S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        20        20
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............45        53        60        64
RH..............86        74        55        43
20 FT wind......E 5G10    E 7G11    NE 11G14  NE 12G18
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1600      5100      6500
Transport wind..E 9       E 10      NE 14     NE 14
Haines index....5         4         4         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..2         14        59        79

$$
Forecaster...HAMILTON
Requested by...Mireles
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414709.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Dustin_mireles@fws.gov