Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
826 FNUS73 KBIS 201112 FWSBIS Spot Forecast for Turtle lake...Usfws National Weather Service Bismarck ND 612 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 20. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Look for mostly cloudy skies today with a northwest wind around 8 to 10 mph at ignition time, increasing to 10 to 15 mph late morning through mid afternoon. Gusts of 15 to 20 mph will be possible during this time. Winds will then shift to the north and diminish back to around 10 mph late in the afternoon. The forecast high is 67 degrees. Poor smoke dispersal this morning will increase to good in the afternoon. At max heating this afternoon the mixing height is expected to be near 8000 feet. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. CWR.................0 percent. Chance of pcpn......10 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 67. Min humidity........34 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 9 mph shifting to the increasing to 10 to 15 mph late morning through mid afternoon. Gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible during this time. Winds will then shift to the north and diminish back to around 10 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 18 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (23800 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (94500 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........79 67 55 52 49 54 58 63 68 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............48 53 56 59 61 64 65 65 66 RH..............80 69 64 55 48 41 40 38 36 20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N 20 FT wind spd..8 10 10 12 13 12 11 9 8 20 FT wind gust.13 14 16 18 18 17 15 13 12 Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 3.3 4.3 5.0 5.9 6.7 7.3 7.7 7.9 Transp wind dir.W NW NW NW NW NW N N N Transp wind spd.13 15 17 18 18 16 15 13 10 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 Dispr kt-ft/1K..24 43 65 75 89 93 95 85 72 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. CWR.................0 percent. Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 44. Max humidity........86 percent. Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening becoming light. Mixing height.......300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 7 to 8 mph shifting to the east 6 to 9 mph in the late evening and overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (53000 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (2400 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........73 75 70 64 63 66 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............66 63 55 52 49 46 RH..............34 39 57 63 74 79 20 ft wind......N 6 NE 4 NE 3 E 3 E 3 E 3 20 ft wind gust.10 8 7 7 7 7 Mix hgt (ft)....7600 3800 500 400 400 300 Transport wind..N 8 N 7 E 7 E 9 E 9 E 8 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 Dispr kt-ft/1K..53 23 3 3 3 2 .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. CWR.................0 percent. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 68. Min humidity........37 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph in the late morning and early afternoon, then increasing to around 10 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 8 to 10 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 12 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (74300 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........57 55 61 68 Weather cov..... S CHC Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 20 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............45 53 63 66 RH..............86 71 44 37 20 FT wind......E 3G7 E 4G9 NE 8G12 NE 10G14 Mix hgt (ft)....300 1500 6100 7400 Transport wind..E 8 E 8 NE 10 N 12 Haines index....5 5 4 5 Dispr kt-ft/1K..2 10 53 72 $$ Forecaster...HAMILTON Requested by...Mireles Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2414708.0/BIS .DELDT 05/20/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Dustin_mireles@fws.gov