004
FNUS73 KBIS 201129
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for 6-1...TNC
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
629 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies today with a northwest wind
around 10 mph at ignition time, increasing to 10 to 15 mph early to mid
afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph will be possible during this time.
Winds will then shift to the north mid to late afternoon and diminish back
to around 10 mph. The forecast high today is 65 degrees. Fair smoke dispersal
this morning will become good in the afternoon. At max heating this afternoon
the mixing height is expected to be near 7000 feet.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 mph at ignition time,
                    increasing to 10 to 15 mph early to mid
                    afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph will be possible during
                    this time. Winds will then shift to the north mid to
                    late afternoon and diminish back to around 10 mph.
Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (52700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (80400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........63  60  57  58  59  61  67
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............55  57  59  62  63  64  65
RH..............69  64  57  52  48  43  43
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..10  12  11  10  9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.15  16  17  16  14  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 4.7 5.1 5.5 6.1 6.7 6.9
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  16  17  16  15  14  13
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..53  65  77  77  79  80  76

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 12 mph shifting to the east 7 to 9
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (69200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........74  80  78  77  75  72  69  67  69  71  73  70
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............63  63  61  57  54  52  51  49  48  47  46  45
RH..............44  44  49  55  61  66  68  71  77  76  79  82
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.10  9   8   7   7   7   7   8   7   7   7   8
Mix hgt (kft)...6.9 6.0 2.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.12  8   8   7   7   9   9   9   9   8   8   9
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..69  42  15  4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 11 mph in the
                    morning and early afternoon, then shifting to
                    the northeast around 11 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 13 mph shifting to the northeast 13
                    to 14 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (74800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........68        68        72        73
Weather cov.....                              S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        10        20
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............45        53        61        64
RH..............82        71        53        43
20 FT wind......E 4G8     E 6G11    NE 9G14   NE 11G15
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1800      5200      6500
Transport wind..E 10      E 9       NE 14     NE 13
Haines index....5         4         4         4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..3         15        61        75

$$
Forecaster...HAMILTON
Requested by...Chris Gordon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414710.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Chris_gordon@tnc.org