122
FNUS73 KBIS 210212
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for PMC...NRCS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
912 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 CDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Light and variable winds tonight with mostly cloudy skies.
Lows will be in the mid 40s, warming to around 67 Tuesday
afternoon. Winds will increase to 15mph by 11am. Minimum
relative humidity will be 40 percent.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 14 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 8 mph shifting to the northeast
                    early in the morning, then shifting to the
                    north 14 to 16 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (89700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to good (79500 knot-ft)
                    early in the morning increasing to very good
                    (104800 knot-ft) in the afternoon late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........86  81  81  77  80  75  76  79  77  75  74  70
Weather cov.....                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............47  48  50  53  57  59  62  63  64  64  65  65
RH..............76  77  74  71  64  57  50  46  43  43  40  41
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   5   6   9   11  11  13  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.6   6   8   9   11  13  14  15  17  18  19  19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.7 1.3 2.3 4.3 6.2 6.9 7.5 7.6 7.3 6.6
Transp wind dir.N   NW  E   NE  E   NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   8   9   12  13  15  16  15  14  14
Haines index....5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..4   4   5   9   18  43  68  90  105 99  87  80

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain showers early in the
                    evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (70100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........68        78        61        33
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).20        10        10        10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............64        59        52        47
RH..............43        55        69        79
20 FT wind......N 14G19   N 9G14    NW 5G11   NW 5G10
Mix hgt (ft)....5800      900       500       500
Transport wind..N 14      N 9       NW 7      NW 8
Haines index....5         5         5         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..70        7         3         4

$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...lucas schmiesing
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414750.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lucas.schmiesing@usda.gov