826
FNUS73 KBIS 201112
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Turtle lake...Usfws
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
612 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Look for mostly cloudy skies today with a northwest wind around 8 to
10 mph at ignition time, increasing to 10 to 15 mph late morning
through mid afternoon. Gusts of 15 to 20 mph will be possible during
this time. Winds will then shift to the north and diminish back to
around 10 mph late in the afternoon. The forecast high is 67 degrees.
Poor smoke dispersal this morning will increase to good in the afternoon.
At max heating this afternoon the mixing height is expected to be
near 8000 feet.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    increasing to 10 to 15 mph late morning through
                    mid afternoon. Gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible
                    during this time. Winds will then shift to the
                    north and diminish back to around 10 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (23800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (94500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79  67  55  52  49  54  58  63  68
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............48  53  56  59  61  64  65  65  66
RH..............80  69  64  55  48  41  40  38  36
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..8   10  10  12  13  12  11  9   8
20 FT wind gust.13  14  16  18  18  17  15  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 3.3 4.3 5.0 5.9 6.7 7.3 7.7 7.9
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.13  15  17  18  18  16  15  13  10
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..24  43  65  75  89  93  95  85  72

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 8 mph shifting to the east 6 to 9
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (53000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........73     75     70     64     63     66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............66     63     55     52     49     46
RH..............34     39     57     63     74     79
20 ft wind......N 6    NE 4   NE 3   E 3    E 3    E 3
20 ft wind gust.10     8      7      7      7      7
Mix hgt (ft)....7600   3800   500    400    400    300
Transport wind..N 8    N 7    E 7    E 9    E 9    E 8
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..53     23     3      3      3      2

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph in
                    the late morning and early afternoon, then
                    increasing to around 10 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 10 mph shifting to the northeast 10
                    to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (74300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........57        55        61        68
Weather cov.....                              S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         10        10        20
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............45        53        63        66
RH..............86        71        44        37
20 FT wind......E 3G7     E 4G9     NE 8G12   NE 10G14
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1500      6100      7400
Transport wind..E 8       E 8       NE 10     N 12
Haines index....5         5         4         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..2         10        53        72

$$
Forecaster...HAMILTON
Requested by...Mireles
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414708.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Dustin_mireles@fws.gov