066
FXUS64 KBMX 011740
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Upper ridging over E Conus has shifted enough EWD to allow for a
shortwave trough to swing in from the Plains. Our mean flow is SSW
into C AL for the activity although the entire swath is slowly
shifting ESEWD as the shortwave swings into E Conus today and
toward the coast on Sunday. On Sunday the wave weakens some, but
will still be enough for some continued scattered convection.
Convection is widespread this morning with some embedded bands of
thunder. During the afternoon and evening today, some storms may
be strong enough for a marginal downburst wind threat. There will
also be heavy rain at times to contend with. Amounts are expected
to be manageable with periodic breaks, with higher amounts closer
to the coast. With more widespread rain today and extensive cloud
cover, temperatures are not expected to be as warm today, but
should be rebound on Sunday to closer to normal with more
scattered convection as opposed to today.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Monday through Friday.

High pressure builds in across the region on Monday with generally
weak flow aloft persisting through mid-week. This will lead to
largely diurnal thunderstorm activity for Central AL Monday and
Tuesday. The ridging begins to flatten and push southward as a
trough slides through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. A frontal
boundary will push southward Wednesday through Friday leading to a
better focus for showers and storms. With the surface forcing in
place, along with northwesterly flow aloft, we`ll need to watch this
system in the coming days as it evolves to determine any severe
threat, but for now will just include increasing rain and
thunderstorm chances in the forecast for Thursday into Friday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Clouds will linger over much of the area with continued chances
for scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.
Expect chances for showers to persist overnight with best
potential across the eastern northern sites and the southern sites
with lowest chance at TCL. Some reduction in visibility will be
possible, especially across portions of the northern terminal
locations overnight, especially if there are any substantial
breaks in the cloud cover. Isolated showers with some
thunderstorms are again forecast on Sunday with the better chances
across the eastern northern sites and both southern terminals.
Thunderstorm potential is too low to include at any terminal
location through this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected today, decreasing
through the afternoon. Rain chances remain near or above 40% for
Sunday and become more isolated to scattered for Monday. Winds
will be out of the southeast today, becoming more southerly
tonight into Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  83  63  88 /  70  40  20  30
Anniston    64  83  65  88 /  80  40  20  20
Birmingham  66  83  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
Tuscaloosa  68  86  68  88 /  60  30  10  30
Calera      65  84  68  88 /  70  40  20  30
Auburn      65  82  67  85 /  80  50  20  20
Montgomery  66  84  68  88 /  80  50  20  30
Troy        65  84  67  88 /  80  60  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...05