120
FXUS64 KBMX 010712
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
212 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 649 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

The upper ridge over the area will continue moving eastward
overnight. This feature will be replaced by a trough near the
Mississippi state line. The low level flow veers move southerly
with time and as the high moves out, our low level moisture
increases enough for some precipitation. Early this evening, a
surface front was located over far southwest areas and was the
dividing line between a much more moist environment. The current
forecast message looks good with increasing rain/thunderstorm
chances tonight into Saturday. It still appears there will be a
MArginal Risk of a few severe storms Saturday with the threat
being damaging winds. With the moisture levels increasing, locally
heavy rain is possible.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

Tonight.

A weakness in the mid-levels will move over the Mid-South Region
overnight while longwave ridging moves further to the northeast of
the area. Surface high pressure will move further northeast of
the area, becoming centered across the Mid Atlantic Region while a
diffuse surface boundary will linger to our southwest and will
help act as a focus for more showers and some thunderstorms to
develop and move east into the area. Winds will be from the
southeast at 4-8 mph. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s
north and in the higher terrain east to readings in the upper 60s
to near 70 far southwest.

Saturday.

The weakness aloft moves northeast, becoming centered over much
of the Tennessee Valley Region on Saturday. The northwest flow
aloft along with sufficient instability and some shear will favor
development of widespread showers with more thunderstorm activity,
especially toward midday and into the afternoon. Conditions may
favor the development of a mesoscale convective system upstream
that may move into the area later in the day that would pose an
organized damaging wind risk. Even if that scenario does not
materialize, even isolated heavy storms may be capable of a
downburst wind risk. Additionally, heavy rainfall with higher
precipitable waters and generally slower storm motions could
result in localized flooding where multiple storms move over the
same area, especially urbanized and poor drainage areas. Winds
will be from the southeast at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will
range from around 80 far north and in the higher elevations east
to the low to mid 80s southwest and far south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

With elevated moisture and a string of impulses within zonal to
northwesterly flow, rain chances remain in the forecast everyday
through much of next week. Forecast remains on track this
afternoon, with no significant adjustments needed.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

There`s still quite a bit of leftover moisture in place as the Ohio
Valley shortwave trough exits the area to the northeast, and another
weaker wave approaches from the west. High POPs are still indicated
as we head into Sunday. Beyond that, synoptic scale forcing
features are quite subtle, and daily POPs will mainly be driven by
mesoscale processes and diurnal heating. Upper level ridging is
forecast to take place out west, and that will eventually put us
in the northwest flow regime by the middle to end of next week.
That should keep temperatures in check during this time frame.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Conditions have been VFR generally with some showers and embedded
tstorms across portion of C AL. Conditions will deteriorate to
MVFR as showers become more widespread with waves of embedded
tstorms at times. Conditions should be generally MVFR, but an
occasional IFR can`t be ruled out with some heavier storms or
toward the end of the forecast in the N. Only mention as of now is
BHM after 3z for cigs. Winds will be SE-S and gusty at times,
more so in storms.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances increase tonight, and remain elevated through Sunday.
Minimum RH values greater than 50 percent are expected through the
weekend. 20 ft southeasterly winds at 6-12mph are expected
Saturday. 20ft winds become southerly Sunday at less than 6mph.
Increased rain chances and elevated moisture values continue
through much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     78  62  82  63 /  80  60  50  20
Anniston    79  64  81  65 /  80  50  50  20
Birmingham  78  66  82  68 /  80  50  40  20
Tuscaloosa  81  68  83  68 /  90  50  30  10
Calera      78  67  81  68 /  80  50  40  20
Auburn      79  65  81  67 /  60  60  50  20
Montgomery  81  67  82  68 /  80  50  50  20
Troy        82  66  83  67 /  80  50  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75/05
LONG TERM....14/61
AVIATION...08