448
FXUS64 KBMX 010018
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
718 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 649 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

The upper ridge over the area will continue moving eastward
overnight. This feature will be replaced by a trough near the
Mississippi state line. The low level flow veers move southerly
with time and as the high moves out, our low level moisture
increases enough for some precipitation. Early this evening, a
surface front was located over far southwest areas and was the
dividing line between a much more moist environment. The current
forecast message looks good with increasing rain/thunderstorm
chances tonight into Saturday. It still appears there will be a
MArginal Risk of a few severe storms Saturday with the threat
being damaging winds. With the moisture levels increasing, locally
heavy rain is possible.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

Tonight.

A weakness in the mid-levels will move over the Mid-South Region
overnight while longwave ridging moves further to the northeast of
the area. Surface high pressure will move further northeast of
the area, becoming centered across the Mid Atlantic Region while a
diffuse surface boundary will linger to our southwest and will
help act as a focus for more showers and some thunderstorms to
develop and move east into the area. Winds will be from the
southeast at 4-8 mph. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s
north and in the higher terrain east to readings in the upper 60s
to near 70 far southwest.

Saturday.

The weakness aloft moves northeast, becoming centered over much
of the Tennessee Valley Region on Saturday. The northwest flow
aloft along with sufficient instability and some shear will favor
development of widespread showers with more thunderstorm activity,
especially toward midday and into the afternoon. Conditions may
favor the development of a mesoscale convective system upstream
that may move into the area later in the day that would pose an
organized damaging wind risk. Even if that scenario does not
materialize, even isolated heavy storms may be capable of a
downburst wind risk. Additionally, heavy rainfall with higher
precipitable waters and generally slower storm motions could
result in localized flooding where multiple storms move over the
same area, especially urbanized and poor drainage areas. Winds
will be from the southeast at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will
range from around 80 far north and in the higher elevations east
to the low to mid 80s southwest and far south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

With elevated moisture and a string of impulses within zonal to
northwesterly flow, rain chances remain in the forecast everyday
through much of next week. Forecast remains on track this
afternoon, with no significant adjustments needed.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

There`s still quite a bit of leftover moisture in place as the Ohio
Valley shortwave trough exits the area to the northeast, and another
weaker wave approaches from the west. High POPs are still indicated
as we head into Sunday. Beyond that, synoptic scale forcing
features are quite subtle, and daily POPs will mainly be driven by
mesoscale processes and diurnal heating. Upper level ridging is
forecast to take place out west, and that will eventually put us
in the northwest flow regime by the middle to end of next week.
That should keep temperatures in check during this time frame.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

All terminals start off VFR as the low levels remain dry. There
were mid and high level clouds overhead. The scattered to isolated
rain/thunderstorms were south and west of all terminals. Moisture
gradually increases from the south and west as low level flow
veers more southerly and increases overnight. Some mention of
thunder and IFR ceilings have been introduced after 09z and
spreads west to east into Saturday. The ceilings generally hang
around between 015-035 during the period with winds become
southeast 10-20kts. Also mentioned the possibility of LLWS as
winds above the surface increase to around 40kts overnight.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances increase tonight, and remain elevated through Sunday.
Minimum RH values greater than 50 percent are expected through the
weekend. 20 ft southeasterly winds at 6-12mph are expected
Saturday. 20ft winds become southerly Sunday at less than 6mph.
Increased rain chances and elevated moisture values continue
through much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  80  62  82 /  50 100  70  50
Anniston    65  82  64  81 /  40  80  60  50
Birmingham  65  82  66  82 /  50 100  60  50
Tuscaloosa  68  84  68  83 /  70 100  60  50
Calera      65  82  67  81 /  50 100  60  50
Auburn      65  83  65  81 /  20  60  40  50
Montgomery  67  85  67  82 /  50  80  50  50
Troy        67  83  66  83 /  30  70  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...75