154
FXUS64 KBMX 050825
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
325 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2024

Moving through the day today we will see a cold front begin to work
closer to the area, but will remain to our northwest through
Thursday morning.  The front will try to work into the area Thursday
afternoon/night but probably will not make it too far into our
northwest before Friday. Most of the showers and storms will be
diurnally driven over the next two days. Depending on which piece
and the strength of each little wave will determine the extent of
coverage. For today, we may see an early wave of showers and perhaps
a storm or two late morning into the afternoon. Then a second wave
moving into the late afternoon and moving through early evening. A
few models take the better coverage into the northwest, while others
keep it in the south. Given the tendency of the last several wave,
would expect a more souther approach.

The timing of the front will be the big factor on Thursday. A more
progressive push would get the front into the far northwest by 4 PM
and keep most of the showers/storms south and east of Interstate 59.
A slower run would keep the precipitation a little further north and
allow the precipitation to continue through the early evening hours.
For now will blend the trends and timing  but have the best coverage
in the south and eastern counties through the early evening. At
this point organized severe weather appears low, but will need to
monitor for small microburst each afternoon, with winds be the
biggest player.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2024

The shortwave axis and best rain chances should be south and east of
our area by late Thursday night/Friday morning. A cold front is
expected to push southward through Central AL during the day on
Friday, though model guidance continues to show this being a dry
front with limited if any shower activity. Drier air advects into
the region behind the front Friday evening leading to a mostly rain-
free start for the weekend.

The overall synoptic pattern with northwesterly flow aloft and weak
ridging in the low levels will persist through the weekend into
early next week. This means we`ll essentially be waiting for the
next shortwave to slide through the main upper level trough. Current
guidance suggests that this next wave, along with another boundary,
will slide through Central AL sometime Sunday and may linger into
Monday. There`s obviously a lot of unknowns about the timing of the
next wave so rain/thunderstorms chances remain generally around 30-
40%, but this will likely increase for one period or another once
the timing is resolved. We should see decreasing rain chances on
Tuesday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2024

Much of the rain is Low clouds and patchy fog will develop mainly
after 09z and a few spots may drop to IFR ceilings. These
ceilings rise after 14-16z. A few models develop some isentropic
lift and develop thunderstorms across the central sections of the
area by 15z, so added in some prob30 for this. More thunderstorms
will move in from the west after 21z through 3z. Winds will be
light southerly overnight outside convection and continue
southerly 5-10 kts through the afternoon.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will persist through at least Thursday
before a frontal boundary moves through the area on Friday.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible each period
through Thursday, with rainfree conditions expected Friday and
Saturday. Minimum RH values remain above 50 percent Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons, and falling into the 35 to 45 percent range
on Friday. Southwesterly 20ft winds at 5-10mph continue Wednesday.
20ft winds become westerly Thursday and then northwesterly
Friday, with speeds less than 10mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  67  88  63 /  60  70  40   0
Anniston    89  69  88  65 /  50  70  60  10
Birmingham  89  70  89  67 /  70  70  40   0
Tuscaloosa  89  70  90  68 /  70  70  40   0
Calera      89  70  89  68 /  70  70  50   0
Auburn      89  71  86  68 /  50  60  70  20
Montgomery  91  71  87  69 /  40  60  70  20
Troy        91  70  87  68 /  40  50  70  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...16