555
FXUS64 KBMX 190018
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
718 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 701 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Thunderstorms developed along a low level instability gradient and
the influence of an upper level low northwest. These storms
produced a nice cold pool that migrated south and east. Early this
evening, the remaining storms were located between Birmingham and
Montgomery and stretched east to west. These storms will continue
for another hour or two before diminishing as they migrate south
and east. The storms have the potential of producing some small
hail and gust winds. It appears the severe threat will be limited
but will leave the Marginal Risk going until 9 pm south. As the
upper trough/low continues eastward overnight, drier air will
begin filtering in. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than
last night. The combination of the rain the past 24-48 hours and
skies decreasing in clouds and cooler temps will lead to some
patchy fog. The fog appears to have the best chance of affecting
visibility will be east central areas along and south of I-20.
Lows in the 60s.

Sunday will feature much drier conditions with northerly flow at
700mb. A surface ridge over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas will
build southwestward by Sunday afternoon. What appears to be a
"back door" surface boundary will creep westward into our far
eastern counties, with some upper level shortwave energy to work
with. A few isolated showers and perhaps a storm can`t be ruled
out across the far east as a result. Otherwise, everyone else will
be dry and warm as upper heights begin to rise. Mid to upper 80s
will be common for highs by Sunday afternoon.

56/GDG/75

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Central Alabama will transition into a drier and warmer pattern
next week as an upper ridge builds across the Central Gulf Coast
region. Highs will reach the upper 80s to near 90 Tuesday and
Wednesday. A northern stream short wave trough will push a weak
cold front to near the Al/TN state line on Thursday. This will
increase rain chances across north Alabama Thursday and Friday,
with better chances for rain on Friday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

VFR conditions start off most sites early this evening. Showers
and thunderstorms were approaching MGM and have a tempo installed
from 01-02z. Slightly lesser confidence that this activity will
make it to TOI due to loss of daytime heating. Will monitor
closely. Otherwise, Expect MVFR ceilings to develop areawide after
06z with the chance that it may become IFR ceilings/vis. Ceilings
and vis improve fairly quickly after sunrise with VFR by 14-16z.
Winds become light and variable overnight and north 5-10kts on
Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue across
Central Alabama through the evening hours, mainly south of I-20
after sunset. Areas of fog after midnight due to rain and moist
low level conditions. A slight chance of storms across the far
eastern counties on Sunday. Min RH values on Sunday 50-55 percent.
Light 20ft winds overnight become north 4-6 mph on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  85  61  85 /  20  20   0   0
Anniston    62  84  62  85 /  40  20   0   0
Birmingham  63  85  65  86 /  20  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  64  87  65  88 /  20   0   0   0
Calera      64  85  65  85 /  30  10   0   0
Auburn      64  82  64  82 /  60  20   0   0
Montgomery  65  85  65  85 /  70  10   0   0
Troy        65  84  64  85 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...56