821
FXUS64 KBMX 191627
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1127 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

Today will begin a tranquil period of weather for Central Alabama
and the Southeast, as the main upper shortwave continues to exit off
to the east. Lower clouds and fog are mixing out as of mid morning,
which will set the stage for a warm afternoon as highs top out in
the 80s areawide. Lower 80s can be expected across the east with a
bit more cloud cover closer to the surface low/shortwave in Georgia,
while upper 80s will be observed in the western counties. We still
can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm across the far east, with
lingering moisture rotating around the west side of the low pressure
center near Macon, Georgia. Otherwise, we`ll remain dry through the
afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight, with some
patchy fog possible in sheltered valleys and near major river
basins. Warm temperatures return once again on Monday but maybe not
quite as warm as previously expected. Easterly flow is expected to
push into Alabama, with a surface ridge centered over the east coast
and Mid-Atlantic states. It won`t be much, but we may be a degree or
two cooler in the east, but near 90 degrees across the west.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

A drier and warm pattern continues through much of next week as
upper level ridging builds from the western Gulf through the Ohio
River Valley and into New England. A weak front will drip into the
Tennessee Valley on Thursday, as a low rotates near Hudson Bay. The
front stalls before reaching Central Alabama, but showers and storms
could make it as far south as the I-20 corridor Thursday afternoon.
Friday, convection expands southward in response to a southern
stream shortwave riding along the surface front, and moving eastward
through the region. Given uncertainty in timing and weak shear
fields, will hold off on any mention of strong to severe storms at
this time.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon following the
lower stratus from this morning. Clear skies will prevail tonight
with mainly calm winds. Patchy fog development is possible, but
confidence is too low to mention vis restrictions just yet.
Prevailing winds will be from the north this afternoon, becoming
easterly to southeasterly during the day on Monday.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fog and low clouds remain scattered across Central Alabama this
morning. These should improve shortly after sunrise. Conditions
today will be warmer and drier overall, with northerly 20 ft winds
at 5-10 mph. Isolated showers or storms are possible this
afternoon east of I-65. We`ll remain warm and dry tomorrow with an
easterly to southeasterly 20 ft wind at around 5 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  61  86  59 /  10  10   0   0
Anniston    83  62  86  62 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  86  65  87  64 /  10  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  87  65  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      85  65  86  64 /  10  10   0   0
Auburn      82  64  84  64 /  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  85  65  86  63 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        84  64  85  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...56/GDG