149
FXUS64 KBMX 230559
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1259 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024

A couple rounds of thunderstorms will pass within close proximity to
the northwestern portions of Central Alabama over the next 24 hours
as a northeast to southwest oriented cold front slowly drifts
towards the Mid-South region. The mid-level ridge axis has shifted
east of the area allowing low-level flow to take on more of a south
to southwesterly heading. Deeper moisture still resides to our west,
so our dewpoints will mix down into the lower to mid 60s this
afternoon and again tomorrow while lower 70s dewpoints are forecast
over northern Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley. The first wave
of thunderstorms will likely follow the more favorable instability
gradient as it moves along the frontal zone, staying north of the
forecast area and moving from Mississippi into northern Alabama this
afternoon.

A second wave will have improved upper-level support overnight as a
shortwave begins to pass across the area. Some weakening
thunderstorms will move in across the northwest around midnight, but
QPF amounts look minimal. Same story on Thursday as the front
remains well to our north. Most of the activity will remain north of
Central Alabama during the day, and any isolated shower or storm is
not expected to be strong as a result of limited forcing and
instability. Expect mostly sunny conditions with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024

North Alabama will be on the southern periphery of an active westerly
flow pattern through the weekend, and kept rain chances mostly in
the 30-50 percent range. A significant short wave trough will track
from the Midwest States and into the Great Lakes region Sunday and
Monday. A severe weather outbreak is likely across Arkansas, Tennessee
and Kentucky Sunday and into Sunday night, but unclear how far
southward severe storms will develop, so not enough confidence to
mention severe at this time for Central Alabama. Clearing and
cooler conditions on Tuesday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2024

High pressure remains over the area with generally high clouds
through 15z. After that VFR conditions will continue, although
some low to mid-level clouds, 4 to 7 kft, will develop across the
area. Pretty much keep any measurable rain outside of TAF
locations until outside of this cycle. Winds will be out of the
south-southwest at 5 to 10 kts by late morning and through the
afternoon.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An upper ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico will keep most of
the rain confined to the far northern portions of Alabama through
Friday morning, with a good chance of rain across the north
through Friday night. 20 foot winds will be from the south at
less than 5 mph at night and 4-7 mph during the day. Min RH this
afternoon 40-45 percent and 45-60 percent on Friday. Max RH levels
tonight will be above 90 percent. Even better chances for rain
expected over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  65  85  65 /  20  30  70  30
Anniston    88  68  87  68 /  10  20  60  30
Birmingham  89  69  88  69 /  10  20  60  30
Tuscaloosa  89  70  89  70 /  10  20  40  20
Calera      88  69  87  70 /  10  20  50  20
Auburn      87  68  87  70 /  10  10  20  10
Montgomery  90  69  90  71 /   0  10  20  10
Troy        89  67  90  70 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...16