785
FXUS64 KBMX 270634
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
134 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 838 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES...

-Severe thunderstorms including tornadoes, damaging winds, and
 large hail are possible overnight. The best chance north of I-20
 after 2 am.

-Severe thunderstorms possible again on Memorial Day, mainly in
 the afternoon and evening. The main threats will be damaging
 winds and large hail. It appears the tornado threat lessens with
 time as the storms move from north to south.

Monitoring the severe thunderstorms developing north across the
Ohio Valley this evening. Some activity is just beginning in the
Missouri Bootheel with hints of additional development in northern
Arkansas. Hi Res CAMS are starting agree with the timing of after
2am for northwestern areas near Hamilton, with potential isolated
development ahead of a more organized line. Bulk Shear values
around 60kts will be more than enough for organized storms. 0-3km SRH
values 200-300 in spots, SBCAPE 2000-3000 in spots while
hodographs support tornadoes late tonight. Therefore, will hold
the timing and threats as they are. Please have multiple ways to
receive watches and warnings especially during the overnight
hours.

Some differences appear in the model output and ultimate
evolution of the storms during the morning hours on Memorial Day.
Some weakening is expected as the storms enter the I-20 corridor
and then re-intensification with chances of severe after noon,
though Bulk Shear decreases. The biggest questions at this time
are the where storms start re-intensification or if they weaken
at all and storms continue from overnight and exit quicker to the
southeast. This will have an effect on how large an area has a
severe risk. The only thing that does look fairly agreeable is
that the winds veer with time and the tornado threat should
decrease with time. At any rate, be aware of the possibility of
severe thunderstorms especially with outdoor activities on
Memorial Day.

No significant changes to the ongoing forecast and overall
message.

75


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2024

High pressure builds in across the region Tuesday night and will
persist through much of the upcoming week. This will lead to
mostly dry conditions for Central AL with seasonably warm
temperatures. Model guidance continues to hint at the potential
for a weak shortwave sliding through the area Wednesday into
Thursday, but there`s a lot of uncertainty in that occurring, so
the forecast remains mostly dry through the period.

Our next chance for rain/storms doesn`t come in until the end of the
week and into next weekend. The ridge shifts slightly to our east,
allowing for an upper wave to dip into the Mid-south at some point,
but model guidance has gone back and forth on this feature, showing
quite a bit of variability in timing and evolution. For now, I`ve
continued to trend rain/storm chances up to 20-30% for next weekend,
but I would expect several changes to that over the next few days.

25/Owen


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2024

Brisk southerly winds thru 15Z at 8-12kts with gusts to 20kts
across the northern TAF sites. Low clouds with cigs arnd 1500 ft
agl have already formed at MGM/TOI and these cigs will spread
across all of Central Alabama by 09Z. A band of strong to severe
thunderstorms will enter northwest Alabama arnd 09Z and reach the
I-20 corridor by 12Z. The line of storms will contain frequent
lightning and periods of intense rainfall. A few of the storms
could produce wind gusts of 40-50 kts for areas along and north of
I-20. The storms will weaken considerably after 14Z. The threat
of storms will shift to areas south of I-20 this afternoon as
surface front pushes southward. Outside convective activity, VFR
conds expected after 18Z. The last of the storms will exit
southeast Alabama arnd 02Z.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again late
tonight into Monday. 20 foot winds will be from the south to
southwest at 6 to 12 mph today. Min RH values will in the upper
40s or above 50 percent through Monday, with overnight recoveries
near 100%. Drier air builds in Tuesday with only isolated
convection possible for Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon
heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  63  88  60 /  60  10   0   0
Anniston    87  65  88  61 /  60  10   0   0
Birmingham  88  67  89  64 /  40  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  90  67  91  65 /  40  10   0   0
Calera      88  67  90  65 /  40  10   0   0
Auburn      84  68  89  65 /  50  20   0   0
Montgomery  88  69  92  65 /  50  20   0   0
Troy        87  68  91  65 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...58/rose