256
FXUS64 KBMX 031236
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
736 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

This AM, the upper trough that we have been following the past
couple of days is now along the Eastern Seaboard. We have a small
temporary mini upper ridge allowing for a break from rain. During
that "break", we will have some low stratus and patchy fog to
contend with, more so in the E half of C AL as there is a lot of
cirrus in the W half from a storm complex. To our W, there has
been a convective complex over LA. This complex has trended
decreasing in coverage and intensity moving to the SE currently
affecting SE LA and should not pose a threat to C AL this morning.
Guidance has suggested another convective complex for tonight to
develop in OK and move SEWD across AR/LA/MS and possibly into C
AL. The latest run is trending a little further S and slower with
the SEWD motion, which could have this system end up missing us
altogether. I have mainly some low pops in the W to account for
this feature. Will have to see how successive runs evolve with
this complex for tonight into early Tue.

With that said, I do have some low diurnally induced pops in for
this afternoon which would be isolated to scattered in nature. If
the afore mentioned complex does not track this way, then storms
would dissipate not long after sunset. If it does, then we may
have a short break before the evening complex reaches after
afternoon activity diminishes. Regardless of the overnight
activity, we should have better rain chances on Tue during the
day as an upper shortwave moves through the flow to our N.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

A weak upper level low pressure system will slide into the
southeastern CONUS Wednesday through Thursday as the more amplified
ridge remains across the the southwestern CONUS. This sets up a
northwesterly flow regime for Central AL. At least 2 weak shortwaves
will likely move through leading to increased rain and thunderstorm
chances; however, the timing and track of these shortwaves has shown
significant variability in model guidance each day. Initially, the
first wave on Wednesday seems to stay to our north for the most
part, but there`s some guidance that brings it further south, so
while I believe most of the area could see at least scattered
showers and storms on Wednesday, the better coverage and higher
confidence of showers and storms remains generally north of I-20.
Rain chances increase again Thursday into early Friday as a frontal
boundary pushes southward through the area. This boundary should be
south of our area during the day Friday leading to decreasing rain
chances and drier weather for at least the first part of the
weekend. However, guidance suggests another shortwave could slide
southeastward through the main trough again late Saturday through
Sunday leading to more showers and thunderstorms. Details on exact
timing of these waves will likely change in the coming days so the
forecast will most likely change.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

Low stratus IFR/LIFR are noted across many sites, except for
MGM/TOI. It is very close to MGM (low cigs at Prattville just to
the N of MGM.) ANB is already starting to improve. Any patchy fog
should resolve itself ~ 13-15z. Cigs may last 1-2 hours longer.
Some scattered late afternoon diurnal convection may occur.
Mentioning at all but ASN/ANB from 21-24z.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will persist today through at least
Thursday before a frontal boundary pushes into the region late in
the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible today and tomorrow becoming more widespread across the
north on Wednesday. Generally light southerly flow expected
outside any thunderstorm activity through Tuesday.Patchy fog may
develop during the early morning hours where rain occurred the
previous day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  66  86  67 /  20  20  70  30
Anniston    86  68  86  68 /  20  20  70  30
Birmingham  87  70  87  71 /  30  20  70  30
Tuscaloosa  87  70  87  71 /  30  20  60  20
Calera      86  70  87  70 /  30  20  60  20
Auburn      85  69  86  70 /  30  20  50  20
Montgomery  86  70  89  70 /  30  20  60  10
Troy        86  69  89  69 /  30  20  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...08