886
FXUS64 KBMX 040943
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
443 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024

This AM we had a convective complex of storms in MS heading toward
us that deteriorated rapidly on radar as they approached the
MS/AL state line. Clouds tops have warmed greatly as well. Only
light showers remain of the previously bowing segment. What
remains over W AL will slowly push ENEWD today. More robust
activity from this area is possible as it pushes across the state
through the day as we heat up. A few of these storms this
afternoon could become strong to marginally severe with damaging
winds. At the same time today, another complex of storms currently
over OK, is progged to push SE swinging into LA and then around
into MS with a portion of it looking to make it into W AL close to
sunset. This complex could look messy on radar over AL with
interactions between it and any linger seabreeze diurnal late
afternoon boundary activity around. This will help storms to stick
around with a second round of strong to marginally severe storms
possible through the early evening. For severe timing, with 2
rounds, we will trying to keep from getting bogged down in the
weeds and just go with "afternoon and evening", 12 noon through
around 9 pm when storms look to decrease in intensity over us.

If that is not enough, wait there`s more guidance that is showing
a 3rd round bringing lingering precip into N AL after midnight
from W TN. Gotta love the NW flow train this time of year. This
3rd degraded round may last into the morning hours. Finally, for
number 4 as number 3 moves into N AL, a fourth area looks to try
to make a repeat performance coming out of OK SEWD into LA then
possibly swinging into MS and TWD W AL by late Wed afternoon in
deja vu round of storms to round out the end of the short term.

Temperatures continue to slowly moderate warming through the
short term with mugginess abounding.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024

A shortwave trough will be moving through the region Wednesday night
through Thursday leading to a band of rain and thunderstorms across
the area. The highest coverage of storms will likely be Wednesday
evening before overnight stabilization decreases the coverage
through Thursday morning. More thunderstorms will likely develop
Thursday afternoon across the southeastern counties before the
trough fully moves out of our area.

A cold front will push southward through Central AL on Friday, but
guidance hints that there may only be isolated showers/storms with
the passage at best. For now, I don`t really have very high of rain
chances at all on Friday - only carrying 15-20% chance across the
far southern counties. However, it`s possible this could change in
the next day or so as higher resolution guidance becomes available
to get a better picture of the upper level moisture availability.

The front is well to our south by Saturday, which will lead to dry
conditions and mostly clear skies across the area. However, in this
season/period of northwesterly flow aloft, our next shortwave is
likely not far off. Models pick up on another wave sliding through
the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley late Saturday into early Sunday, which
could lead to another round of showers/storms Sunday into Monday,
but the timing of when it moves into Central AL and produces the
best chances for showers/storms is quite variable at this range, so
probabilities are generally 30% both afternoons due to the low
predictability.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024

We currently have a deteriorating convective complex over MS
approaching AL state line. Clouds tops have warmed on satellite.
Lightning activity has decreased greatly and is now basically
SHRA. The bowing feature from earlier has deteriorated as well.
As a result, the near short term will be SHRAs for TCL and toward
sunrise for BHM/EET. By mid morning the remnants will be near
ASN/ANB. Don`t expect much activity for MGM/TOI until later in the
afternoon with heating. There is also the threat of another
convective complex of storms reaching the MS/AL state line late
this afternoon which could bring TSRA to TCL after sunset if it
pans out. Outside of convection, MVFR stratus is expected to
develop over the next couple of hours. A few areas could go down
to IFR as well. Conditions should rebound to VFR 15-16z S to
16-18z N areas.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will persist through at least Thursday
before a frontal boundary pushes into the region on Friday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today before
becoming more widespread Wednesday. Generally light southerly
flow is expected today before shifting westerly Thursday ahead of
the approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  67  88  67 /  80  40  50  70
Anniston    85  68  87  69 /  80  30  40  70
Birmingham  86  70  88  70 /  40  40  30  70
Tuscaloosa  86  70  89  71 /  30  40  50  60
Calera      86  70  88  71 /  30  30  20  70
Auburn      84  69  86  71 /  40  30  30  60
Montgomery  87  70  90  71 /  30  30  50  60
Troy        88  68  91  70 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...08