982
FXUS64 KBMX 311739
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1239 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

Currently we have a ridge in place across the area. This ridge is
holding firm as an approaching MCS is beginning to weaken in
intensity. At this time it does not appear that the MCS will be able
to penetrate the ridge, but an outflow from the northern edge of the
associated MCV will slide across the western edge of the state
through the morning and could provide a brief shower or two. By this
afternoon a second MCS will be approaching the area as well. We
will likely see the outflow with it and perhaps some interaction
with the outflow from the first boundary. This may result in a few
showers/storms across the western third of the area this afternoon.
A third MCS will develop this afternoon to our west and make it into
MS tonight. Models continue to dissipate it through sunrise, but it
should leave an outflow boundary across the southwestern portions of
the area.

On Saturday, this boundary, in association with an approaching
trough that will displace the ridge to the east, will result in a
fairly good coverage of showers and storms. By Saturday afternoon,
Pwats should increase to around 1.8 - 2.0 across the area along with
MU CAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This environment will be one that
will support multicell storms and could result in some downburst
clusters with strong enough updrafts. Right now the consensus of the
models support a higher probability of impacts across the southern
half of the area, but any storm that gets going in the afternoon
would have the potential for a downburst, resulting in strong to
marginally severe storms. With the fact that these cells should be
water loaded, hail should not be a big concern, making wind and
localized flooding the greatest concern. Will highlight the main
threats from Noon to 9 PM, but will need to monitor a potential MCS
in northern MS, to see if any impacts would be felt if it does
develop Saturday afternoon. Given the fact that this would be the
fourth MCS and conditional on the placement of the others, will
forego any mention of severe storms after early Saturday evening for
now.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

There`s still quite a bit of leftover moisture in place as the Ohio
Valley shortwave trough exits the area to the northeast, and another
weaker wave approaches from the west. High POPs are still indicated
as we head into Sunday. Beyond that, synoptic scale forcing
features are quite subtle, and daily POPs will mainly be driven by
mesoscale processes and diurnal heating. Upper level ridging is
forecast to take place out west, and that will eventually put us
in the northwest flow regime by the middle to end of next week.
That should keep temperatures in check during this time frame.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

Clouds will gradually increase from the west through the rest of
the afternoon with increasing chances of showers through early
afternoon, followed by a chance of showers and some thunderstorms
far west. Expect clouds to continue to increase east over the area
tonight with further increases in showers with some thunderstorms
with greatest chances remaining across the west. Rain chances
only increase further into the day on Saturday with thunderstorm
potential growing at the end of this forecast cycle arriving from
the west and moving east across the area later in the day.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated rain chances exist through this evening, with most of
the area remaining dry. Areas in the west will see increasing rain
coverage by sunrise on Saturday. Minimum RH values in the 38 to
48 percent range are expected this afternoon, with 20 ft
southeasterly winds at 6-8mph. Better rain chances arrive on
Saturday along with increased RH values and heavy rain, especially
in the south. 20 ft winds becoming southerly but remaining less
than 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  80  64  82 /  60 100  60  60
Anniston    65  82  65  83 /  50  80  60  60
Birmingham  65  82  67  83 /  60 100  60  60
Tuscaloosa  68  84  67  84 /  60 100  60  70
Calera      65  82  67  84 /  60 100  60  60
Auburn      65  83  66  82 /  30  60  40  50
Montgomery  67  85  67  85 /  60  80  40  60
Troy        67  83  67  84 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...05