186
FXUS65 KBOI 261447
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
847 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies will continue today as
temperatures warm to just a few degrees below normal. Gusty
winds, associated with mostly dry convection, will occur in
eastern Oregon Monday afternoon and evening, and there`s a good
chance (20-40% in the valleys, 40-80% in the mountains) of
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. No changes needed at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies. Surface winds: NW 5-15
kt with gusts to 25 kt, especially SE of KBOI/KMUO. 10kft MSL:
W-NW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. NW 5-15 kt with brief gusts to 20 kt possible after
18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...Quiet weather is in
store today and Monday as an upper level ridge moves overhead
and amplifies into Monday. Expect mostly sunny skies and
temperatures a couple degrees below normal today. Winds will be
lighter but still breezy in the Magic Valley, where gusts 20-30
mph will develop this afternoon. Temperatures will warm around
10 degrees on Monday as the ridge builds and the flow aloft
becomes southwesterly ahead of a Pacific trough. A weak
shortwave will bring a 5-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms
to southeast Oregon Monday evening. The upper level trough will
approach our area on Tuesday with increasing southwest flow
aloft. Temperatures will rise about 5 degrees from Monday with
highs 10-15 degrees above normal. Lower valley highs will reach
into the upper 80s with a 30-50% chance of hitting 90 degrees.
Moisture will increase by Tuesday afternoon, and as the trough
approaches there will be sufficient instability for a 20-50%
chance (except a 60-80% chance across the west-central Idaho
mountains) of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening. A cold front is also expected to move through Tuesday
night with gusty winds.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...There is good agreement
amongst model guidance that a trough of low pressure will migrate
west to east across the northern Rockies mid/late week. This trough
will help to bring more seasonable temperatures, and precipitation
chances between 15-50%, with the highest values over the central
Idaho mountains. Breezy conditions will be possible Wed/Thu as the
trough passes as well. Indications are that the ridge of high
pressure will rebound northward over the region for the remainder of
next week, ushering in warming and dry conditions.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....MC