037
FXUS65 KBOI 172029
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
229 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...The cold front that
moved through the region this morning is well to our southeast
now, with gusty northwest winds in it`s wake across most of the
region. Gusts to 40-50 mph are continuing across the Magic
Valley and mountain tops, with sustained westerly winds from
20-30 mph across the region. These strong winds will likely
lower quite a bit as night falls, but breezy winds will return
tomorrow morning. The dry air mass is also lowering our relative
humidities to the upper teens to low twenties across the
region. Temperatures have moderated to near normal as well, well
below the nearly 90F temperatures observed across the region
yesterday. Near normal temperatures will continue through
Saturday, with breezy conditions expected again tomorrow
afternoon. Another cold frontal passage is expected on Sunday
morning around 5-8 am MDT across the region, with a low chance
(<30% chance) of rain across the northern portions of the West
Central Mountains. Breezy winds will accompany the frontal
passage on Sunday morning, though lower wind speeds are expected
across the region compared to today`s wind speeds. Temperatures
will lower to slightly below normal with that frontal passage,
beginning a cooling trend for next week.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...A series of upper troughs
will keep unsettled weather over the region next week. Showers
will linger across the mountains on Monday as a system exits
eastward. After a break from precipitation on Tuesday the next
upper trough arrives Wednesday with more widespread
precipitation. Wednesday is the highest confidence day with
deterministic models showing the most overlap in the track and
timing of this feature. The result is a broad area of 30-60%
chance of precipitation with 70-90% in the mountains on
Wednesday. Snow levels will start around 7kft, dropping to
5-6kft Wednesday night and Thursday. Solutions diverge on how to
handle the evolution of this trough Thursday and Friday, but
the general pattern is for a longwave trough to remain
positioned over the Pac NW into next weekend which will keep it
cool and possibly unsettled. Starting Wednesday temperatures
will be 10-15 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds: NW
15-25 kt with gusts to 25-40 kt through late early this
evening, then W-NW 5- 15kt after 02Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
W to NW 20-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Gusty northwest winds decreasing 00Z-03Z this
evening.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Increasing clouds Sunday. The central
Idaho mountains will see a 20-50% of showers with snow levels
5-6kft MSL. Surface winds W to NW 10-20 kt. Local gusts to 30 kt
over higher terrain on Saturday and in the Snake Plain on
Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening IDZ014-016-028-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....DG