Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
455 FXUS65 KBOI 010222 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 822 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 .DISCUSSION...Cirrus clouds cover much of the sky this evening. Winds are relatively light. A weak cold front will enter eastern Oregon Saturday afternoon and cross southwest Idaho in the evening. Isolated to scattered mainly higher elevation showers are forecast, with a slight chance of thunderstorms in Valley County. All this is handled well by the current forecast and no changes are planned at this time. && .AVIATION...VFR with thin cirrus. Elevated smoke layers north of KBNO and in the Owyhee Mountains. Surface winds: mainly W-NW less than 10 kt. 10k ft MSL winds: W 10-15 kt. KBOI...VFR and clear. Winds less than 10 kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR through Sunday. Increased clouds above 15 kft MSL Saturday. Slight chance of showers north of KONO-KSNT 01/21Z through 02/03Z. W-NW winds 5-15 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in southeast Oregon Saturday and Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...A weak upper ridge is keeping conditions dry with mostly clear skies today. Southwest flow on Saturday allows temps to warm by 5-10 degrees before a weak upper trough reaches our area. There is some disagreement in precipitation chances Saturday afternoon among models, as a result our confidence in coverage is low. However, the Owyhees and the West Central Mountains have a 10-25% chance of precip with a 15% chance of thunder in northeastern Valley County. The trough brings a weak cold front through which has the potential to bring a shower or two and wind gusts up to 30 mph to the lower valleys. The front`s cooler air lowers temps for Sunday by around 5 degrees. Weather on Sunday will be a little breezy in SE Oregon and the Magic Valley, with increasing cloud cover ahead of another upper level trough. Rain showers become widespread Sunday evening into Sunday night for our Oregon and central Idaho zones. LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...North Pacific trough will continue widespread showers Monday, heaviest in northern mountains where up to an inch total rainfall expected. Also, windy and much cooler Monday. Partial clearing Monday night with brief ridging Tuesday morning. More showers later Tuesday in northern areas as another weak Pacific trough races inland. After that, steady warming trend Wednesday through Friday as an upper ridge in the southwestern US builds northward. By Friday high temps will be in the 90s, with a 20 percent chance of reaching 100 degrees in the lowest southern valleys. Highs 75 to 85 in the mountains. Skies generally clear Wednesday through Friday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION.....SP SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....LC