427
FXUS65 KBOU 040027
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
627 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer heat through most of this week, with a few 90 degree
  readings over the plains, with Friday the hottest day.

- Chance of showers and storms tonight.

- Breezy but a little cooler Tuesday.

- Slightly warmer than normal temperatures and a chance of
  showers and thunderstorms this upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper level trough will travel across the Northern and Central
Rockies tonight bringing Pacific moisture with it. This moisture
will be found at the mid and upper levels with mostly cloudy skies
prevailing overnight. Low levels of the atmosphere is on the dry
side with dew points mainly in the 30s. Instability is limited
with CAPE up to 300 J/kg. This is expected to produce high-based
showers late this afternoon and evening. Very little if any rain
is expected with the showers. However, gusty outflow winds will be
likely with this activity. There will be a better chance for rain
this evening and into the overnight hours when lift from the
trough passes over the area. Best rainfall will be over the
mountains. Any rainfall east of the mountains should be light due
a downslope flow. Towards sunrise Tuesday morning, cross sections
show a mountain wave setting up and will likely bring gusty west
winds to the Front Range mountains and higher foothills.
Subsidence spreads east across the area Tuesday resulting in dry
conditions. Breezy winds are also expected with the subsidence
helping to mix down the stronger flow aloft. It will be slightly
cooler Tuesday behind the trough with high temperatures in the
lower to mid 80s over northeast Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Models have moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft over the
CWA Tuesday night with the upper ridge to our south through west.
On Wednesday, continuing through Thursday night, the upper ridge
pushes slowly eastward and is centered over southeastern New
Mexico by 12Z Friday morning. The QG Omega fields indicate benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA all five periods. The low level
pressure and wind fields continue to show downsloping winds
Wednesday and Thursday. Some of the models show a cold front and
northeasterly flow behind it over the eastern plains Wednesday
evening.

Moisture is fairly sparse Wednesday and Thursday.  There is little
to no CAPE progged late day Wednesday, with only limited CAPE late
day Thursday on some models.  The QPF fields show no precipitation
on Wednesday and the same on Thursday.  It looks dry and very warm
all five periods. For temperatures, Wednesday`s highs are 1-4 C
warmer than Tuesday`s. Thursday`s are a tad cooler than Wedensday`s.
If the 850-500mb thickness, 850mb & 700mb temperatures fields are
correct, Denver should reach its first 90 F degree reading on
Wednesday.

For that later days, Friday through Monday, upper ridging is over
Colorado through Sunday.  On Monday, weak troughing is indicated on
some of the models.  Models show decent moisture to return according
to the precipitable water and surface dew point fields. Temperatures
now look to be at or a bit above seasonal normals through Monday
which is warmer than the models indicate the last couple of days.
Friday is the hottest day. Will leave the "scattered" pops going
for the late day time frames all four days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 623 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR through Tuesday. Scattered virga or weak showers are expected
this evening, with a 30% chance of wind shifts with gusts to 30
knots. Otherwise west to northwest winds gusting to 20 knots will
become southwest between 08z-11z. On Tuesday, west winds will
increase 15z-18z, then become northwest with gusts up to 30 knots.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad