739
FXUS65 KBOU 241043
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
443 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures through this weekend with isolated to
  scattered mainly afternoon thunderstorms. Storms will be most
  numerous in the mountains on Saturday afternoon.

- Elevated fire weather conditions across parts of the plains
  Sunday, but green fuels will limit the fire danger.

- Warm through the coming week with limited late day thunderstorm
  activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

A shortwave trough to the north will shift eastward into the Dakotas
through the day today. In its wake, weak ridging will move over
the area bringing subsident flow into CO. Forecast soundings show
dry conditions for the day with increasing upper level moisture
after 6 PM. Increasing mid level lapse rates indicate enough
instability present for an isolated thunderstorm to develop, but
with limited low level moisture, chances are scarce. Max
temperatures will be cooler than Thursday and remain below normal
for this time of year. Clouds will increase from west to east in
the afternoon as the next shortwave trough approaches the region.
It should be a nice day across the forecast area!

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

A short wave trough will move over Colorado on Saturday. There are
minor differences in the timing, with the faster timing spreading
showers into the mountains Saturday morning with the best lift
onto the plains in the afternoon. Slower model runs are about 6
hours behind and would delay the mountain convection until midday
and the plains until mid afternoon. While the forcing isn`t that
strong, coverage in the mountains should still be pretty good as
there`s nothing to stop it. The jet position may keep most of the
activity north of I-70. On the plains limited low level moisture
will limit the activity, but scattered thunderstorms over the
northern part look good. There will be some wind again with a weak
front accentuated by shower outflow in the afternoon and evening,
and downslope winds behind the trough possibly producing 40-50 mph
gusts over the ridge and east slopes of the Front Range for a
little while in the evening.

Sunday will be drier though there will likely still be enough
instability for isolated late day storms. Then temperatures will
warm as a ridge moves over the west. Monday will likely be dry,
though an isolated storm is still possible. The ridge builds
through mid week, but there will likely be some moisture return on
the plains with low thunderstorm coverage from the Front Range
eastward. Probably not much intensity with limited moisture and
shear Tuesday and Wednesday, but there could be more to work with
later in the week with continued southeast low level winds and
possibly an approaching weak trough. NBM stays in the mid 80s but
we could approach 90 if the cloud cover stays pretty limited.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds have held on to a
gusty westerly component behind the cold front for DEN and BJC
while APA has maintained a lighter NNW flow. Winds will likely
decrease in magnitude as a more SW drainage sets in. Exact timing
on when this happens is still uncertain as a few passing
boundaries are aiding in keeping the westerly component in place.
Tomorrow should bring SE winds to all airports as an anticyclone
sets up over the plains. APA and DEN should stay SE through the
day with less uncertainty for BJC as there is a chance some
westerly winds could make it in.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bonner
LONG TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Bonner