705
FXUS65 KBOU 241718
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1118 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures through this weekend with isolated to
  scattered mainly afternoon thunderstorms. Storms will be most
  numerous in the mountains on Saturday afternoon.

- Elevated fire weather conditions across parts of the plains
  Sunday, but green fuels will limit the fire danger.

- Warm through the coming week with limited late day thunderstorm
  activity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Dew points are pretty low across the forecast area this morning.
They range from the 20s to lower 30s F for most areas. Little to
no convective cloudiness developing, even in the mountains, at
this time.

Little to no CAPE progged on all the models this afternoon and
evening. Temperatures are about 15 F cooler today across the
plains than they were yesterday at this time. Will leave a few
showers and storms going in the high mountains late day, and will
decrease and zero-out pops for the rest of the CWA for this
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

A shortwave trough to the north will shift eastward into the Dakotas
through the day today. In its wake, weak ridging will move over
the area bringing subsident flow into CO. Forecast soundings show
dry conditions for the day with increasing upper level moisture
after 6 PM. Increasing mid level lapse rates indicate enough
instability present for an isolated thunderstorm to develop, but
with limited low level moisture, chances are scarce. Max
temperatures will be cooler than Thursday and remain below normal
for this time of year. Clouds will increase from west to east in
the afternoon as the next shortwave trough approaches the region.
It should be a nice day across the forecast area!

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

A short wave trough will move over Colorado on Saturday. There are
minor differences in the timing, with the faster timing spreading
showers into the mountains Saturday morning with the best lift
onto the plains in the afternoon. Slower model runs are about 6
hours behind and would delay the mountain convection until midday
and the plains until mid afternoon. While the forcing isn`t that
strong, coverage in the mountains should still be pretty good as
there`s nothing to stop it. The jet position may keep most of the
activity north of I-70. On the plains limited low level moisture
will limit the activity, but scattered thunderstorms over the
northern part look good. There will be some wind again with a weak
front accentuated by shower outflow in the afternoon and evening,
and downslope winds behind the trough possibly producing 40-50 mph
gusts over the ridge and east slopes of the Front Range for a
little while in the evening.

Sunday will be drier though there will likely still be enough
instability for isolated late day storms. Then temperatures will
warm as a ridge moves over the west. Monday will likely be dry,
though an isolated storm is still possible. The ridge builds
through mid week, but there will likely be some moisture return on
the plains with low thunderstorm coverage from the Front Range
eastward. Probably not much intensity with limited moisture and
shear Tuesday and Wednesday, but there could be more to work with
later in the week with continued southeast low level winds and
possibly an approaching weak trough. NBM stays in the mid 80s but
we could approach 90 if the cloud cover stays pretty limited.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

Southeasterly winds are the rule at DIA this morning. There is a
weak Denver cyclone in place. Most of the models keep the
southeasterlies in place well into the evening before they go to
normal drainage patterns a bit after 06Z. There doesn`t look to
be any showers or thunderstorms, nor should there be any ceiling
issues.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...Bonner
LONG TERM....Gimmestad
AVIATION.....RJK