Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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401 FXUS65 KBOU 302050 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 250 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue overnight and into early Friday. - A few severe storms possible across the plains and I-25 Corridor Friday, with the best chance being Denver and southward. - Warmer and drier beginning Saturday, with a couple strong to severe storms still possible on the plains. - Hottest temperatures of the year Sunday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday/... Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 GOES-18 Water Vapor imagery displays dry air throughout northeast Colorado. Although storms may struggle to begin, scattered showers and storms are expected through tonight especially south of I-70 across the plains. Areas north of I-76 will be drier this afternoon. Winds aloft remain light as westerly flow continues. Models favor a surface low developing late this evening near the Colorado Kansas border. CAMs, especially the HRRR, have shown a line of thunderstorms pushing eastward starting from Weld to Yuma county near midnight tonight. MUCAPE values between 700-900 J/kg amongst guidance seems to favor this outcome thus this forecast update adjusted PoPs tonight for lingering showers and storms until Friday morning. There some uncertainty about the severe potential of these overnight showers and storms but it is possible these storms could produce small hail, wind gusts up to 45 mph, and brief heavy rainfall. If there is enough low level moisture, a few spots of fog could occur along I-76 Friday morning. Model soundings have shown light northeast winds to support this outcome. By Friday afternoon, another round of scattered showers and storms are possible along the foothills, urban corridor and plains with the threat of severe storms mainly east of I-25. && .LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/... Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible into Friday evening as storms progress eastward across the plains. Best chance for the showers and storms will be along and south of I-70. It`s still unclear how stable/capped it will be across northern Colorado. On Saturday, the airmass begins to dry out and warm up along the Front Range. There will be enough moisture and instability for high based showers and storms. Gusty outflow winds will be the main threat with this activity. A dry line/lee trough sets up over eastern Colorado. To the east of it, dew points will reach the 50s with ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. This combined with increasing shear will likely produce a few severe thunderstorms over the eastern (perhaps far eastern) Colorado. First taste of summer arrives Sunday. An upper level trough moving across the Northern/Central Rockies will increase the westerly flow aloft and also cause a lee side trough/dry line to form over far eastern Colorado. This will lead to gusty downslope west winds for Sunday. Temperatures will warm to around 90F across northeast Colorado. The wave passing north of Colorado, could produce a few high based showers/storms over northern Colorado. The best chance for convection will be over far northeast Colorado where better moisture will be possible. For Monday and Tuesday, flat ridging in the westerly flow aloft is expected to keep temperatures warm, in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The airmass is looking too dry for showers or storms. On Tuesday, models are coming into better agreement showing a closed low tracking across the Northern Plains. This will cause flow aloft to turn northwesterly and bring a cold front late Tuesday. Still expect a warm day Tuesday with dry conditions. For Wednesday and Thursday, an upper level ridge builds somewhere over the western half of the country. Models are still unclear where the ridge will set up. Expect warm conditions to continue Wednesday and Thursday though slight cooling may occur behind Tuesday`s cold front. Chances for showers and storms continue to be low, with the vast majority of the ensemble members showing dry conditions continuing through Thursday. One of the outliers happens to the 12Z GFS. It shows some subtropical moisture moving northward late next week. Can`t rule this out, though this seems to be a stretch given what the other models show. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/... Issued at 1211 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions will continue through tonight. There is a possibility of low clouds overnight due to scattered thunderstorms developing north of all terminals but will keep the TEMPO group for this outcome. This afternoon through early evening, thunderstorms will occur bringing variable winds gusting to 30kts. It is possible winds will shift south then westerly by tonight. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AD LONG TERM...Meier AVIATION...AD