Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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181 FXUS65 KBOU 221039 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 439 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and drier today and Thursday, with elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible by Thursday. - Scattered showers and storms each afternoon from Friday into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 417 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Satellite this morning shows a much quieter picture across the state compared to the last couple of days, with the shortwave trough axis now off to the north and east of our forecast area. There was a briefly amplified mountain wave which produced some 50-60mph gusts over the higher elevations of Boulder/Gilpin counties earlier that was aided by the subsidence immediately behind the departing s/w, but wind gusts have diminished significantly in the last hour or two. Across the plains, most locations in the Frost Advisory have dropped into the mid 30s with a few sites closer to freezing... and that headline will remain in effect through the mid-morning. The rest of the day should be quiet as much drier air remains over the region. Temperatures should rebound nicely compared to yesterday, with highs back to near normal values (low/mid 70s) in the Denver metro. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm across the far eastern plains later where guidance shows just enough moisture and meager CAPE. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/... Issued at 417 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 An somewhat more active weather pattern is expected through the extended forecast period, however, it will kick off with a brief warm and dry period on Thursday. A mostly zonal flow aloft will turn slightly southwesterly over Colorado as an upper level low traverses to the north. Guidance continues to agree on the track and intensity of the disturbance as well as its main forcings staying north of the forecast area. 700 mb temperatures look to be roughly four degrees warmer for Thursday than that seen on Wednesday, which will assist in bringing maximum temperatures up to the high 70s or even low 80s across the plains. The foothills will be in the mid to high 60s, and the mountains will be high 50s to low 60s. Colorado will be on the west side of a dryline, and with increasing winds and southwesterly surface flow, it is possible for elevated/critical fire weather conditions to develop over portions of the plains, Palmer Divide, and South Park Thursday afternoon. For Thursday night, a cold front will pass through northeastern Colorado that will help subdue any of the elevated fire weather concerns for Friday. Friday will be roughly 10 degrees cooler than Thursday behind the cold frontal passage. An approaching shortwave trough to the west will help increase moisture and there will be a chance for daily afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and even some light snow showers for the mountains. Solutions begin to diverge slightly with regards to the next upper level low dropping into the PNW Saturday night that could impact our forecast area, but there is better agreement that a ridging pattern will build over the western CONUS in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe bringing warmer and drier conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/... Issued at 1139 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR through the TAF period. Currently seeing a brief push of westerly winds, but drainage flow should establish overnight and continue into Wednesday morning. Main forecast challenge will come Wednesday afternoon and evening, with guidance developing a Denver cyclone near the terminals. Expect a wind shift to the west/northwest at some point during the later afternoon hours but confidence on that timing is low. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 417 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Warm and dry conditions are expected for Thursday that will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions to portions of the urban corridor, Palmer Divide, and South Park. With recent precipitation and greenup occurring in spots throughout these locations, fuel status will play an important role in whether or not Fire Weather Watches/Red Flag Warnings would be necessary. As of now, relative humidities are expected to drop to below 15% as winds increase through the morning and afternoon, surpassing Red Flag Warning criteria in some locations. Updated fuel conditions will be helpful today to get a better idea on whether any highlights will be needed. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ038-041>047- 049. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hiris LONG TERM...Bonner AVIATION...Hiris FIRE WEATHER...Bonner