249
FXUS65 KBOU 270240
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
840 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and mild Memorial Day with light winds. Only an
  isolated late day shower or weak storm over the mountains south
  of I-70.

- Warm through the coming week. There will be limited late day
  thunderstorm activity on Tuesday with better coverage Wednesday
  through Friday. A few severe storms are possible on the plains
  with the highest threat on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Winds have decreased as scheduled with the loss of daytime heating
and mixing. A few clouds were still hanging on over the mountains
and in a band across the northern plains, but expect those to
clear out with further mid level drying later this evening and
overnight. This leads us to an absolutely gorgeous Memorial Day
weatherwise, with cool temperatures to start and slightly above
normal temperatures to finish. Lots of sunshine and light winds,
too, with only an isolated weak shower or storm possible over the
mountains south of I-70. Forecast is on track with only minor
adjustment for latest observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Weak convective cloudiness is around over the CWA this afternoon.
There is very little on the radars, a few returns over
northwestern Jackson County is about it. Temperatures are in the
mid 60s to mid 70s over the plains and lower foothills right now.
The strong northwesterly winds over the plains earlier today have
decreased somewhat at this time.

Models have moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA
tonight, then weaker zonal flow is progged on Monday.  Concerning
synoptic scale energy, the QG fields have weak downward vertical
motion for the the CWA tonight and Monday.  Looking at the available
moisture tonight and Monday along with the instability expected will
go with no pops for any of the CWA tonight and 10%s in the mountains
and high valleys south of I-70 on Monday afternoon. Monday`s highs
look to be 1-4 C warmer than today`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

The upper level ridge moves across the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Low level moisture is limited across the plains Tuesday with a
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday a
developing surface low will cause southeasterly winds to increase
with better low level moisture across the plains. Some of the
thunderstorms across the plains will be strong to severe.
Temperatures remain warm Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 70s
and 80s across the plains.

A stronger system moves across the Rockies Thursday into Friday.
Temperatures remain quite warm Thursday with a better chance of
severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains. Once the cold front
moves through the area Thursday night, temperatures on Friday will
be about 10 degrees cooler. Lingering moisture, but limited
instability Friday afternoon, will lead to showers and some weak
embedded thunderstorms across the area.

A return to warmer and drier conditions is expected next weekend as
the upper level ridge builds back across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 517 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions will persist with only FEW clouds above 9000 feet
AGL for the Denver area TAF sites through Monday. West/northwest
winds are in the process of relaxing, and that will continue
through 02Z with winds gradually becoming southwest winds at 5-10
knots by 04Z-06Z. On Monday, winds are expected to turn more
northeasterly by 14Z-15Z per local pressure gradients, and then
eventually more easterly around 8-10 knots during peak heating and
diurnal upslope 18Z-00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM....RJK
LONG TERM.....Stark
AVIATION...Barjenbruch