705
FXUS65 KBOU 040558
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1158 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer heat through most of this week, with a few 90 degree
  readings over the plains, with Friday the hottest day.

- Chance of showers and storms tonight.

- Breezy but a little cooler Tuesday.

- Slightly warmer than normal temperatures and a chance of
  showers and thunderstorms this upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

We`ve got fairly widespread weak high-based convection ahead of
tonight`s shortwave trough. Very little rain making it to the
ground, although there`s a little more rain production now over
the eastern part of the plains. Gusty winds have also been fairly
localized east of the mountains, though we unfortunately got a
burst of wind around DIA over the past hour.

Not much change to the forecast at this hour, we reduced the PoPs
a little. Should be pretty cloudy until the trough passage between
3 and 6 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper level trough will travel across the Northern and Central
Rockies tonight bringing Pacific moisture with it. This moisture
will be found at the mid and upper levels with mostly cloudy skies
prevailing overnight. Low levels of the atmosphere is on the dry
side with dew points mainly in the 30s. Instability is limited
with CAPE up to 300 J/kg. This is expected to produce high-based
showers late this afternoon and evening. Very little if any rain
is expected with the showers. However, gusty outflow winds will be
likely with this activity. There will be a better chance for rain
this evening and into the overnight hours when lift from the
trough passes over the area. Best rainfall will be over the
mountains. Any rainfall east of the mountains should be light due
a downslope flow. Towards sunrise Tuesday morning, cross sections
show a mountain wave setting up and will likely bring gusty west
winds to the Front Range mountains and higher foothills.
Subsidence spreads east across the area Tuesday resulting in dry
conditions. Breezy winds are also expected with the subsidence
helping to mix down the stronger flow aloft. It will be slightly
cooler Tuesday behind the trough with high temperatures in the
lower to mid 80s over northeast Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Models have moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft over the
CWA Tuesday night with the upper ridge to our south through west.
On Wednesday, continuing through Thursday night, the upper ridge
pushes slowly eastward and is centered over southeastern New
Mexico by 12Z Friday morning. The QG Omega fields indicate benign
synoptic scale energy for the CWA all five periods. The low level
pressure and wind fields continue to show downsloping winds
Wednesday and Thursday. Some of the models show a cold front and
northeasterly flow behind it over the eastern plains Wednesday
evening.

Moisture is fairly sparse Wednesday and Thursday.  There is little
to no CAPE progged late day Wednesday, with only limited CAPE late
day Thursday on some models.  The QPF fields show no precipitation
on Wednesday and the same on Thursday.  It looks dry and very warm
all five periods. For temperatures, Wednesday`s highs are 1-4 C
warmer than Tuesday`s. Thursday`s are a tad cooler than Wedensday`s.
If the 850-500mb thickness, 850mb & 700mb temperatures fields are
correct, Denver should reach its first 90 F degree reading on
Wednesday.

For that later days, Friday through Monday, upper ridging is over
Colorado through Sunday.  On Monday, weak troughing is indicated on
some of the models.  Models show decent moisture to return according
to the precipitable water and surface dew point fields. Temperatures
now look to be at or a bit above seasonal normals through Monday
which is warmer than the models indicate the last couple of days.
Friday is the hottest day. Will leave the "scattered" pops going
for the late day time frames all four days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR through Tuesday. The main threat of microburst winds passed
between 03Z and 04Z, although there`s still a low risk (20%
chance) of shifting winds with the main shot of virga still coming
across the Front Range until 09Z-10Z. Otherwise, north/northwest
winds should prevail until then, with gusts up to 20 knots. After
10Z, the trough axis passes which means clearing skies and winds
attempting to settle to normal southwesterlies.

West/northwest winds are then expected to develop and increase
15Z-18Z, with gusts averaging around 25 kts through most of the
afternoon, but a few gusts to 30 kts possible. Winds then
decrease 00Z-03Z before turning to south/southwest winds 03Z-06Z.
Mid and upper level clouds will also be clearing.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...Barjenbruch