Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
334 FNUS75 KBOU 191108 FWSBOU Spot Forecast for Forsythe II - Unit 44...USFS National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 508 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024 If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Today will be mild with a mix of clouds and sun. There will be west winds around 10 mph with gusts near the 23 mph threshold. When there are no showers or storms overhead, the gusts will likely stay just below 23 mph. However, it is expected that weak showers will form in the afternoon. Given the dry airmass near the surface, these showers could create gusty winds up to 40 mph. The most likely time for these showers would be after 1pm. There will be excellent smoke dispersal for most of the day. The precip amounts look very light, likely less than a tenth of an inch if it does rain. It does not appear much of a mountain wave or inversion will be in place this morning. A cold front will move across the spot location early Monday morning shifting winds to the east. The cooler temperatures and weaker winds will result in fair to good smoke dispersal. There will again be a chance of afternoon thunderstorms with thunderstorms becoming likely in the evening. Some of these thunderstorms could have more precip with them and between a tenth to half an inch of rain is expected. Tuesday should be quite cool and cloudy with rain expected. Wednesday and Thursday will warm up and dry out although light afternoon showers can`t be ruled out. .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of rain showers and thunderstorms after 1200. CWR.................6 percent. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2 until 1500, then 3. Max temperature.....Around 70. Min humidity........25 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph early in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after 1200. Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0800. 9700 ft AGL after 1200. Transport winds.....West 13 to 20 mph until 1000, then 24 to 29 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then good until 1000, then excellent. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........54 48 48 38 41 46 52 45 43 43 43 43 Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 Temp............44 46 51 58 60 63 66 66 67 69 67 65 RH..............64 62 51 38 35 33 28 27 26 25 26 29 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..7 6 6 7 8 10 13 13 13 13 12 12 20 FT wind gust.12 9 9 12 13 16 21 21 22 21 18 18 Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 1.3 4.0 7.1 8.9 10 10 10 10 8.6 8.4 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W Transp wind spd.15 14 13 20 25 25 28 28 26 25 25 25 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 9 14 69 156 195 249 250 231 223 190 186 SmokeDispersion.P P P G E E E E E E E E .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). CWR.................4 percent. Chance of pcpn......10 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 40. Max humidity........69 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph until 0400, then southwest around 5 mph until 0500, then variable up to 5 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL until 1900. Below 1000 FT AGL after 2000. Transport winds.....West 20 to 26 mph until 2000, then 8 to 14 mph until 0300, then light until 0400, then west around 8 mph until 0500, then light. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 1900. Poor after 0200. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........27 32 26 23 22 20 18 20 23 26 31 35 Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............64 60 55 51 50 48 46 45 45 43 42 41 RH..............30 34 43 52 53 55 60 60 61 62 67 67 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W SW SW S 20 FT wind spd..12 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 20 FT wind gust.18 15 13 13 13 12 12 9 9 9 7 6 Mix hgt (kft)...7.4 5.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W SE Transp wind spd.26 20 13 14 14 13 10 12 8 7 8 7 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..170 86 10 10 9 8 6 7 5 4 5 4 SmokeDispersion.E G P P P P P P P P P P .MONDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 1100, then mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain showers and thunderstorms after 1200. CWR.................7 percent. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4. Max temperature.....Around 63. Min humidity........41 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph until 0800, then southeast 5 to 8 mph until 1500, then east around 5 mph until 1600, then variable up to 5 mph until 1700, then northeast around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after 1200. Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0700. 5400 ft AGL after 1200. Transport winds.....Light winds until 0700, then south 9 to 16 mph until 1600, then southwest 12 to 17 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, then good until 1500, then fair. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........50 43 34 38 43 51 63 63 65 67 71 75 Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 40 40 40 40 40 40 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 Temp............40 42 44 48 53 56 58 60 61 62 62 60 RH..............69 68 64 58 49 48 45 45 42 41 41 43 20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E NE NE 20 FT wind spd..2 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 3 5 20 FT wind gust.3 6 7 9 9 12 12 12 9 7 6 7 Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.3 4.5 5.7 6.5 5.8 5.1 4.5 3.8 Transp wind dir.SE S S S S S SW S SW SW SW SW Transp wind spd.7 9 12 13 13 16 16 16 15 13 14 14 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 13 21 31 37 63 80 91 73 57 52 47 SmokeDispersion.P P P P P G G G G F F F $$ Forecaster...Danielson Requested by...Luke Finn Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2414199.2/BOU .DELDT 05/19/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL luke.finn@usda.gov,michael.smith6@usda.gov