Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
438
FNUS71 KBOX 200651
FWSBOX
Spot Forecast for Herman Covey WMA Woodlands Rx Burn...MassWildlife
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
251 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.
Dry conditions are expected for the Belchertown area through the
day with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, though cloud cover
continues to be the trickiest portion of the forecast and, by
proxy, may impact mixing heights if the day turns in cloudier
than forecast direction. High temperatures will approach 80F with
dewpoints in the low 50s. Min RH this afternoon will fall to
around 45-50 percent. Winds will be light, but will gradually
shift from NE to S, becoming south between 2 and 4pm.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Dewpoint............52 increasing to 55 in the afternoon.
Max apparent temp...76.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 6 mph shifting to the south 2 to
3 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2600 knot-ft).
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................4 to 13.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........44 48 49 45 38 41 44 47 50 53 53 54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............50 53 55 59 62 65 68 72 73 75 76 76
Dewpoint........50 51 50 52 53 54 55 55 56 56 56 56
RH..............100 93 83 78 72 68 63 55 55 52 50 50
Heat index (F)..50 53 55 59 62 65 68 72 73 75 76 76
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE E E E E SE SE SE S S
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3
20 FT wind gust.7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
Surface wnd dir.NE NE NE E E E E SE SE SE S S
Surface wnd spd.2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3
Surface wnd gst.7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE NE E E E SE SE SE S S
Transp wind spd.6 5 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3
LVORI...........9 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
ADI.............6 4 4 6 5 7 9 7 8 8 13 13
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 3 3 4 4 5 6 5 6 6 9 9
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Dewpoint............54 decreasing to 51 early in the morning.
Max apparent temp...74.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph late in
the evening, then becoming light after
midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph late in
the evening, then becoming light after
midnight.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (900 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 to 9.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 4.5.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........34 31 24 22 21 24 24 23 22 27 32 37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............74 72 69 66 63 61 59 57 55 54 54 53
Dewpoint........56 56 56 56 55 55 54 52 51 51 51 51
RH..............53 57 63 70 75 81 83 83 86 90 90 93
Heat index (F)..74 72 69 66 63 61 59 57 55 54 54 53
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.6 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7
Surface wnd dir.S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW
Surface wnd spd.3 3 3 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3
Surface wnd gst.6 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.3 3 3 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6
ADI.............9 5 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3
Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 4 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 25 25 20 15 11 9.0 7.0 4.5
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Dewpoint............55 increasing to 59 in the late morning and
afternoon.
Max apparent temp...83.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph early in the morning
becoming light, then becoming southwest 5 to 8
mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (31600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................6 to 12 increasing to 45.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......3.5 decreasing to 3.0 early, then increasing to
8.0 late in the morning increasing to 13
increasing to 20 increasing to 25 early in the
afternoon decreasing to 20.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........39 43 36 29 21 17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............54 60 69 75 81 83
Dewpoint........53 57 58 59 59 60
RH..............96 90 68 58 47 46
Heat index (F)..54 60 69 75 81 83
20 ft wind......SW 3 SW 3 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8
20 ft wind gust.7 7 9 12 13 15
Surface wind....SW 3 SW 3 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8
Surface wnd gst.7 7 9 12 13 15
Mix hgt (ft)....500 500 800 1400 2300 2700
Transport wind..SW 7 SW 7 SW 6 SW 7 SW 9 SW 12
LVORI...........6 5 3 2 2 1
ADI.............7 7 6 12 27 39
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 3 4 8 18 27
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Ceiling (kft)...4.0 3.0 13 20 25 20
$$
Forecaster...KS
Requested by...Alex Entrup
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414674.0/BOX
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL alex.entrup@mass.gov