Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Versions:
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505
FNUS71 KBOX 290740
FWSBOX
Spot Forecast for Herman Covey WMA Grasslands RX Burn...MassWildlife
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
340 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EDT on May 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.
.DISCUSSION...
A sunny and dry start to the day, though scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop as early as 12pm to 2pm. Confidence in any
strong to severe storms is greatest for locations south and east
of the prescribed burn. Storms that develop in the area of the
prescribed burn likely remain sub-severe, though lightning remains
a threat with any storm this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
dissipate early evening.
A second round of rain is possible late night into late morning
Thursday, with more widespread rainfall possible. Rain comes to an
end second-half of Thursday followed by drying conditions.
.OUTLOOK...Friday through Monday...
High pressure building in from the west will bring mainly dry and
very pleasant weather Friday into the weekend.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers in
the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms late in
the afternoon.
CWR.................9 percent increasing to 29 percent late in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Dewpoint............53.
Max apparent temp...74.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (47000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................8 to 17 increasing to 27 early, then increasing
to 38 late in the morning increasing to 48 to
54 decreasing to 31 to 38.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......13 decreasing to 6.0.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........38 37 36 42 48 55 57 59 61 60 59 58
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 30 30 30 30
Temp............57 59 62 64 67 69 71 73 74 74 73 72
Dewpoint........53 54 54 53 53 52 52 52 53 52 52 52
RH..............86 83 75 67 61 55 51 48 48 46 48 49
Heat index (F)..57 59 62 64 67 69 71 73 74 74 73 72
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..5 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 6
20 FT wind gust.9 10 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10
Surface wnd dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Surface wnd spd.5 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 6
Surface wnd gst.9 10 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.9 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.7 6.0 6.4 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.1
Transp wind dir.W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7
LVORI...........5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............8 17 27 38 48 52 54 37 38 37 32 31
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 11 19 26 33 40 42 45 47 46 38 37
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...14 15 15 13 10 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers in
the evening. Isolated thunderstorms early in
the evening. Chance of rain showers after
midnight.
CWR.................29 percent decreasing to 11 percent until just
after midnight, then increasing to 32 percent
early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Dewpoint............51 decreasing to 47 early in the morning.
Max apparent temp...70.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening
becoming light, then becoming north 5 to 7 mph
around midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
light, then becoming north 5 to 7 mph around
midnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (27000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (1500 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................31 to 35 decreasing to 2 to 5 until just after
midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......7.0 increasing to 9.0 early in the evening,
then increasing to 10 early decreasing to 9.0
late in the evening decreasing to 8.0
decreasing to 7.0 around midnight increasing to
8.0 decreasing to 7.0 early in the morning
decreasing to 6.0.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........60 64 72 78 81 81
Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD
CWR.............30 10 10 10 30 30
Temp............70 67 63 60 58 56
Dewpoint........52 53 53 52 51 48
RH..............53 61 70 75 77 74
Heat index (F)..70 67 63 60 58 56
20 ft wind......NW 6 NW 6 N 3 N 5 N 7 N 7
20 ft wind gust.9 8 8 9 13 12
Surface wind....NW 6 NW 6 N 3 N 5 N 7 N 7
Surface wnd gst.9 8 8 9 13 12
Mix hgt (ft)....5400 3900 1600 700 1400 900
Transport wind..NW 6 NW 6 N 3 N 5 N 7 N 8
LVORI...........1 3 3 4 4 3
ADI.............35 3 2 3 5 5
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..27 20 5 3 8 6
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Ceiling (kft)...7.0 10 8.0 7.0 8.0 7.0
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers through
early afternoon, then slight chance of rain
showers late in the afternoon.
CWR.................33 percent decreasing to 11 percent late in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Dewpoint............48.
Max apparent temp...69.
Surface winds (mph).North winds 7 to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 8 mph shifting to the northwest
around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (55200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................6 to 15 increasing to 62 to 66.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......6.0 increasing to 9.0.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........80 75 61 47
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30 30 30 10
Temp............55 57 63 68
Dewpoint........47 49 47 46
RH..............74 75 56 45
Heat index (F)..55 57 63 68
20 FT wind......N 7G13 N 7G13 N 7G13 N 8G13
Surface wind....N 7G13 N 7G13 N 7G13 N 8G13
Mix hgt (ft)....600 1100 3900 7400
Transport wind..N 8 N 7 N 7 NW 8
LVORI...........3 4 1 1
ADI.............6 9 32 63
Haines index....3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 7 23 52
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR FAIR
Ceiling (kft)...6.0 6.0 8.0 8.0
$$
Forecaster...Dooley
Requested by...Alex Entrup
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415252.0/BOX
.DELDT 05/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL alex.entrup@mass.gov