Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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998 FXUS64 KBRO 240902 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 402 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Key Messages: - Extreme and Dangerous Heat Today through Saturday - High Rip Current Risk at local Beaches through Saturday - Small Craft Advisories on the Laguna Madre Today The heat is on and will stay on through Saturday and persist for the holiday weekend. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories (that were issued yesterday remain in tact with today`s round of Heat indices to range from 110 to approx. 120F degrees. Another round of Heat Warnings and/or Heat Advisories are likely tomorrow with the 500mb ridge remaining in tact and the heat dome associated with it still sporting 850mb temperatures of 25-28C. The NWS Experimental HeatRisk remains at the Extreme Level (4 of 4) with plenty of sunshine today and Saturday and elevated ovenight heat indices increasing the probability of heat related illness and impacts for heat-sensitive populations and industries. This type of extreme heat will be very dangerous for anyone spending time outside this weekend. Taking the necessary precautions will be vital to reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses. It is highly recommended to drink plenty of water, even if you do not feel thirsty, take frequent breaks in the shade or indoors, and wear light-colored, loose-fitting clothing. Local pressure gradient between surface high pressure over the Western Gulf and a thermal low over NE Mexico to maintain breezy to windy afternoons and breezy conditions overnight. 925-850mb layered winds of 20-30kts will translate to surface wind gusts of 30-35 knots slightly lower than Thursday. The stronger winds to spread over the coastal waters with a Small Craft Advisory issued for the Laguna Madre today and a High Risk of rip currents along area beaches today through Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The BRO CWFA will generally remain on the northern periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered along the upper east coast of Mexico through the period. This will have the result of producing dry weather for a majority of the time. However, the passage of a few mid-level shortwaves along the top of the ridge will have the potential to produce isolated convection Monday night through Tuesday night over far western Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, temperature-wise, well above normal daytime highs and overnight lows are forecast. A combination of Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning will likely be needed across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. For Wednesday and Thursday, however, cooler high temperatures may result in these products not being needed for these days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 MVFR covers all of the Rio Grande Valley and the three regional airports through mid-morning Friday with VFR developing for Friday afternoon through at least sunset. Gusty periods of south winds with gusts 18-23 knots overnight become fore frequent and stronger Friday afternoon with the gusts approaching 30 knots at times. The temperatures Friday through the holiday weekend will be increasing with heat index values over 110 degrees each afternoon. This is likely to lower the Density Altitude. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The enhanced pressure gradient over the Gulf of Mexico persist through Saturday. Surface ridge extending westward over the Gulf to combine with a thermal low over NE Mexico and S Texas to maintain moderate to fresh and occasional stronger periods of southeast winds and a moderate sea state. The strong winds support Small Craft Advisories along the Laguna Madre and Exercise Caution on the Gulf waters today and likely continuing into this evening and Saturday. (Saturday Night through Thursday) Small Craft Should Exercise Caution to possible Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist along the Lower Texas Coast courtesy of an enhanced pressure gradient through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 98 82 98 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 99 79 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 102 81 102 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 106 80 105 80 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 87 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 80 94 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ248>253-353. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>253-353. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ254-255-351-354- 355. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-135. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bogorad-59 LONG TERM...Tomaselli-66