014
FXUS61 KBTV 222215
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
615 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a day of unseasonable warmth, a cold front approaching
from the west will bring scattered showers and a few possible
thunderstorms overnight into tomorrow morning. After a period of
drier conditions, chances of showers return late this weekend
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 552 PM EDT Wednesday...We did hit 90 degrees at Burlington
shortly after 3:30 PM this afternoon, which is the first time
we`ve hit 90 this year. To put it in context, the average first
date of the season to hit 90 at BTV is June 19th. The earliest
we ever hit 90 was April 17th in 2002. So this is early, but by
no means record early. Otherwise, attention turns to the
thunderstorms approaching our forecast area from the west
associated with a pre-frontal trough. Temperatures in the 80s to
around 90 today with dewpoints mid 50s to low 60s have allowed
for building instability during the day today, although upper-
level ridging has suppressed any widespread convection. With
trough edging in from the west and convectively induced vort max
approaching, focus for any stronger storms this evening remains
St. Lawrence Valley. By the time storms progress further east,
will see increased CIN suppress convection and mitigate the
gusty wind threat during the overnight hours. Overall coverage
of storms/showers will decrease after sunset, but will still see
some scattered showers/elevated storms persist during the
overnight hours with between 500 to 100 J/kg MUCAPE present.
Previous discussion follows...

An extremely warm day across the region this afternoon as
temperatures have climb into the 80s, and a few spots climbing
into the 90s. With the daytime heating, some isolated garden-
variety thunderstorms have tried to develop across northern New
York, but they have been very few and far between. Chances of
precipitation continue to increase heading into this evening and
the overnight hours as a pre-frontal trough ahead of an
approaching cold front swings through the region, bringing a
line of showers with embedded thunderstorms to the region. The
latest guidance shows this system, and any associated
thunderstorms that form, to be weaker than previous forecasts as
the arrival time does not coincide with the greatest
instability. Temperatures overnight will be quite mild and
muggy, with lows generally in the 60s and dewpoints nearly the
same.

By Thursday morning, the surface cold front will be moving across
the region, with showers coming to an end Thursday afternoon. Since
the frontal passage will occur during the morning hours, the threat
for stronger thunderstorms will be low across our area, with better
chances to our east (as seen in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook),
although some thunder cannot be ruled out across our area.
Temperatures during the day will be cooler in comparison to today`s
warmth, although high temperatures will still climb into the upper
70s to mid 50s. Drier conditions will return behind the cold front,
with overnight low temperatures in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 342 PM EDT Wednesday...A low pressure system passing well north
of the international border will bring a chance for showers to only
our very far northern Vermont zones on Friday as a weak surface cold
front crosses the area. Ridge of surface high pressure will then
build into the region Friday night and drier, cooler conditions for
the north country. Maximum temperatures on Friday will range from
the lower to upper 70s. Minimum temperatures Friday night will range
from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 342 PM EDT Wednesday...The weather will be more active in the
long term portion of the forecast as a persistent surface and upper
level trough becomes anchored over the eastern portion of the United
States. There will be increasing chances for rain showers Saturday
afternoon as a warm front lifts into the area. A surface cold front
will cross Northern New York and Vermont early Sunday morning. Yet
another low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes area on Monday
will bring additional chances for showers Monday and Monday night.
This low will be slow to move away from the region, so showers will
continue right into Tuesday and Wednesday as the north country
remains under cyclonic flow. Models diverge a bit beyond Wednesday.
Temperatures will trend cooler through the long term portion of the
forecast, partly due to showers and clouds which will linger through
most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions currently prevail at all
terminals this afternoon, are are expected to continue for most
of the next several hours. Some showers and thunderstorms have
begun to develop across portions of northern New York (KPBG and
KSLK) this afternoon, although they are very scattered in
coverage. More showers will begin to move into the region from
the west around 00Z Friday, as a weakening line of thunderstorms
moves in. Some reduced flight conditions may be possible as this
system approaches due to heavier downpours, although there is
some uncertainty as to how well it holds together across our
region. Some MVFR ceilings will be possible overnight, but by
15Z all terminals should trend back towards MVFR. WInds will be
primarily from the south between 5 to 15 knots, becoming more
westerly after 12Z Friday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

May 22:
KBTV: 93/1977
KMPV: 90/1994
KMSS: 89/1977
KSLK: 91/1911

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 22:
KBTV: 70/1911
KPBG: 65/1975
KSLK: 63/1921

May 23:
KPBG: 65/1964

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Duell/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...Team BTV