498
FXUS61 KBTV 022325
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
725 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue through Tuesday, with highs
generally reaching the 80s. Humidity will be gradually increasing
this week and some rain showers look to develop on Wednesday.
Widespread rainfall will move through on Thursday and begin a
cooling trend for later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 725 PM EDT Sunday...Main change to the forecast for this
evening was to increase cloud cover as a BKN/OVC cirrus deck is
currently moving through the area, and upstream some SCT/BKN
mid-level clouds will encroach upon northern New York through
the overnight. Additionally added in an hour or two of slight
chance PoPs in southern Franklin/Essex counties of New York as
some higher radar reflectivity skirting along the border did
produce a very brief period of light rain upstream. Otherwise,
temps for the evening remain on track to fall into the 60s after
sunset.

Previous Discussion...Large scale ridging will be in place
during this period and it will keep the weather relatively dry
and sunny. High clouds are making their way into the region this
afternoon but they are having a difficult time staying
together. Therefore, mostly sunny skies should continue this
afternoon, even over much of northern New York. Eventually these
clouds will win out and the first part of the night will be
partly to mostly cloudy. Clouds will erode later in the night as
a high builds down slightly from the northeast. Clearing skies
and calm winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling to
develop in the second part of the night, and temperatures will
generally fall into the 50s. However, it will not be as cold as
the previous nights. Temperatures will rise into the 80s across
the region tomorrow and the humidity will begin to increase,
with dew points rising into the 50s to around 60. There is the
chance of an isolated shower (~10%) across central and eastern
Vermont, but with a decent amount amount of dry air in the lower
atmosphere, most rain will likely not even reach the ground.
Due to the increased humidity and a warmer airmass, temperatures
will stay a few degrees warmer than tonight, only falling into
the 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 337 PM EDT Sunday...Mid/upper level ridging will build into the
region from the west on Tuesday with surface high pressure hanging
around coastal New England. While this will generally keep
conditions dry and warm, there will be increasing moisture from the
west/northwest, and a weak shortwave energy riding the ridge, which
could produce a few isolated showers and gradually increase clouds.
Instability is not thoroughly impressive, though there could be
enough destabilization from daytime heating to produce a rumble of
thunder, especially in northern New York, which will be closest to
the interaction of moisture and shortwave.

Temperatures at the 925mb level are modeled at around +20 C Tuesday
afternoon. Surface temps are not expected to be greatly impacted by
any isolated showers or clouds during the day, soaring 10-15 degrees
above early June averages. Highs are expected to rise into the 80s
outside the higher elevations and directly over Lake Champlain,
likely the hottest day of the week. Warmest conditions will be on
the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley as well as New York`s St.
Lawrence Valley. We are anticipating a minor risk of heat-related
impacts, which would mean mainly individuals extremely sensitive to
heat would be affected, particularly when outdoors or without
adequate cooling/hydration.

While moisture continues to increase overnight, the ridge begins to
crest over the forecast area, keeping us mostly dry. However, there
is the potential for another shortwave to sweep south through the
region, bringing a few additional showers as surface high pressure
heads off into the Atlantic Ocean. This will also allow winds to
pick up slightly out of the south, producing low temperatures in the
50s to mid 60s, remaining roughly 10 degrees above average. Overall
rain amounts from Tuesday - Tuesday night will not amount to much,
perhaps a few hundredths of an inch. Dry air at the surface may not
allow much precipitation to reach the ground.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 337 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday will be another pop-up scattered
shower day due to continued modest instability and high temperatures
in the 80s, more widespread showers than Tuesday with higher
confidence of precipitation. Showers/storms may produce several
hundredths of an inch across the forecast area. Mid/upper level low
pressure will send a moist frontal boundary through the forecast
area Thursday, and we continue to see a high likelihood of
widespread wetting rainfall for this second half of the week.
Temperatures will also be falling towards climatological normals
late week through the weekend, mainly highs in the 70s. Following
the frontal boundary Thursday, cyclonic circulation will keep us in
a wet, showery pattern into early next week. At the moment, the
Weather Prediction Center is forecasting at least a 5% chance of
flash flooding Wednesday into Thursday due to the rainfall, and
rivers are expected to rise slightly as well. However, after a
period of mostly dry weather, we are not anticipating high impacts
with this system, but will continue to monitor it as it approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. BKN-OVC cirrus clouds will shift east of the region this
evening with a SCT-BKN mid-level deck encroaching upon northern
New York and perhaps southern VT. After sunrise, skies will
trend clear through midday, with a few fair weather cumulus
developing over the higher terrain. Light winds overnight will
trend northerly at 5-7kts after 14Z Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Lahiff