612
FXUS61 KBTV 250207
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1007 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure building into the region this afternoon
will provide clear and cool conditions to the region tonight,
followed by a pleasant Saturday with near seasonal temperatures
and low humidity. A weak upper level disturbance will produce
scattered showers with some embedded thunder Saturday evening
through the overnight, but drier weather returns for Sunday.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely on Memorial Day,
especially in the afternoon, with cool and showery conditions
following for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1004 PM EDT Friday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Skies have cleared out as expected, and
temperatures have cooled sharply under good radiational cooling.
Note some locations in the the Adirondacks, including Ellenburg
Depot and Saranac Lake are already in the mid 40s, which is a
bit cooler than anticipated. Have therefore lowered lows just a
little in these spots. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape.

Previous discussion...After morning clouds associated with a
weak frontal passage exited the region, the remainder of the day
has been absolutely spectacular with mostly sunny skies,
temperatures in the 70s, and low humidity. High pressure
building into the region is responsible for this, and will
control the North Country and Vermont`s weather tonight through
much of Saturday. Gusty winds this afternoon will abate to
nearly calm overnight with skies trending clear setting the
stage for excellent radiational cooling. Lows will likely be
cooler than last night for most locations, and generally fall
into the 40s but some spot 30s are possible in the colder
hollows of the higher terrain. Temperatures on Saturday should
bump a little above seasonal normals with 925mb temps around
+15C supporting highs ranging through the 70s with upper 70s
possible in the wider valleys. Winds will be much lighter and
generally less than 10 mph.

Finally for Saturday night, a decaying shortwave trough exiting
east from the Great Lakes looks to bring a rising chance for
scattered to numerous showers and likely some embedded thunder
from the evening through the overnight hours. While surface
based CAPE will be at a minimum, CAMs show a few hundred J/kg of
elevated CAPE which supports some thunder, but nothing strong.
This could lead to some localized moderate rainfall, but overall
basin averaged QPF shouldn`t be more than a quarter to third of
an inch. Temps will be much milder than the previous night,
with clouds and precip keeping lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...Fair weather is expected on Sunday
with decreasing clouds and increasing temperatures. High
temperatures will reach the upper 70s to around 80 by the
afternoon. Sunday night will also be mainly dry, but some
increasing clouds towards Monday morning. During the second half
of the overnight will also have a chance for some showers with
warm air advection out ahead of next approaching system in the
Great Lakes region. Early minimum temperatures Sunday night will
generally range through the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...Low pressure system will lift
northward through the Great Lakes area on Monday, and
precipitation will spread across our forecast area from west to
east associated with frontal passage on Monday. Have a slight
chance for thunderstorms included in the forecast as well.
Highest chance for precipitation will be during the overnight
hours Monday night, therefore instability will be limited due to
time of day. Upper level low pressure system will linger behind
departing surface low, and upper trough will move across our
region Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to continued chances for
showers and cool temperatures. Drier weather and a trend back
towards warmer temperatures is expected for Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with mostly clear skies dominating through at about
18z Sunday. Mid/high clouds start to spread eastward thereafter.
Only other concern is the potential for localized fog at KSLK,
but certainty is not high enough to include beyond VCFG at this
point. Gusty north/northwest winds will abate by 02z this
evening, then variable at 5 kt or less through the remainder of
the period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Hastings