507
FXUS61 KBTV 300519
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry weather pattern is becoming established over Vermont and
northern New York. After some cooler conditions tonight through
Friday morning, a steady warming trend will begin. Fantastic
weekend weather is expected. Localized to isolated showers
activity will return with the work week as temperatures climb
into the 80s during the afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 111 AM EDT Thursday...Mid/high clouds continue to spread
northward into our region early this morning as low pressure
moves across southern New England. Latest CAM guidance continues
to indicate precipitation associated with this feature will
remain just to our south, with perhaps a few showers just making
it into far southern Rutland/Windsor Counties. Temperatures have
dropped into the mid/upper 30s in our usual cold spots in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, but the increasing clouds
should limit additional cooling, especially in the Adirondacks.
Still, localized frost will be possible. The forecast has this
covered, so no changes were needed with this update.

Previous discussion...Dry air is slowly winning out. Some
stratocumulus remains, and these should dissipate with the loss
of daytime heating. Although there will be a few mid to high
clouds streaming in from a vort northeast from the Ohio River
Valley. This poses two questions for tonight. How low can we go
in radiational cooling limbo, and can we get some fog? The
proverbial bar is set at 300-500 ft above the ground where 10 to
15 knot winds should promote some level of mixing. Based on how
cool this airmass is following the warm, damp air mass and calm
winds, decided to lean on the colder side and add fog in the
favorable river valleys. It will be cold enough in the hollows
of the Adirondacks that some patchy frost could develop, but it
appears quite localized. Probabilistic data suggests there is a
low chance this could impact the Northeast Kingdom as well if
they radiate out better than currently forecast. We`ll see if
SLK can hit 32, but currently have 33 at the Adirondack Airport.

Elsewhere, mainly 40s are expected, followed by warming into
the mid 60s to lower 70s once again. It should be another
gorgeous day with a steady north wind around 10 mph on Thursday.
Thursday night looks like a repeat performance with 10 to 15
knot winds at 300-500 ft above the ground. So we`ll see how well
our weather stations do in their game of radiational cooling
limbo tonight as a persistence forecast will likely work best.
Though it may be a degree or two warmer. So once again, some
patchy frost will be possible in cold hollows of the Adirondacks
along with river valley fog as the sun rises Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday is shaping up to be a
beautiful day as upper level ridging and surface high pressure
build over the region, with some sunshine and dry weather
expected to round out the month of May. Daytime highs will be
pleasant, with temperatures in the upper 60s into the lower 70s
and dewpoints maxing out in the 40s. Heading into the overnight
hours, low temperatures will drop into 40s and low 50s, which is
near climatological normals for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 313 PM EDT Wednesday...Upper level ridging and surface
high pressure will remain across the region heading into the
weekend, with quiet stretch of weather to start off June. The
ridge will begin to break down towards the middle of next week,
with increasing chances for showers by Tuesday with a warm front
lifting through the region. Temperatures will gradually warm
into early next week, with high temperatures climbing into the
upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will also see a
warming trend, with temperatures in the 40s/50s over the weekend
climbing into the 60s by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions expected to prevail through
the entire TAF period. Mid/high clouds will spread over the
region through mid-morning Thursday, but ceilings will remain
AOA 4000 ft. Expect fair weather cumulus to develop around 5000
ft after 15z, then dissipate after sunset. Some localized fog
will be possible in sheltered valleys, but with increasing cloud
cover, confidence in areal extent is low. Have therefore just
included vicinity fog at KSLK/KEFK, but would not be surprised
if brief IFR conditions are reported, especially at KSLK. Light
and variable winds will increase to 6 to 10 knots after 13z,
then subside again by 02z.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Hastings/Neiles