203
FXUS61 KBTV 310516
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
116 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s and 40s with frost
possible, mainly for the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. A steady
warming trend is expected over the weekend and into early next week.
There could be some showers next week, but chances are on the
lower side.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 111 AM EDT Friday...

* A Frost Advisory remains in effect for Franklin County of New
  York and Essex County of Vermont from 1 AM to 8 AM Friday as
  temperatures fall as low as 31-34, resulting in frost
  formation.

No significant changes were needed with this update.
Temperatures continue to fall as expected. One potential fly in
the ointment for the Frost Advisory is a small batch of low
clouds which has developed over the northern Adirondacks and is
gradually expanding as it shifts southward. Current thinking is
that these clouds will be transient, exiting our region by
early Friday morning and allowing temperatures to once again
drop into the low/mid 30s. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will
dominate, and the Frost Advisory looks solid for Essex County,
VT, as temperatures are already in the upper 30s in spots there.

Previous discussion...High pressure currently over the Great
Lakes will nudge southeastward over the next 48 hours, providing
increasingly drier air to the forecast area. No appreciable
precipitation is expected through tomorrow night.

Tonight will start out fairly clear, but some mid to high level
clouds will increase towards the early morning hours as an area of
moisture in the 700mb layer slides southward across the
international border. Winds will be light at the surface/lower
elevations, but could remain somewhat consistent at higher
elevations and aloft as the edge of a 500mb jet streak passes
overhead into tomorrow. All that in consideration, tonight looks
like another chilly one with some valley fog. Lows are expected to
drop into the 30s and 40s, roughly 5-10 degrees below normal for
late May. This may result in areas of frost in cold hollows of the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Fog and freezing fog are also
anticipated in valleys and bowls of these areas as well.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and warmer with a northwesterly
surface flow. Highs will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s, warmest
across the Champlain Valley and southern Connecticut River Valley.
Winds should generally remain below 25 mph, keeping fire weather
concern low, though relative humidity may drop as low as 25-40%.
Despite high pressure, clear skies, and light winds recurring
tomorrow night, warm air will be flowing in aloft, which could keep
temperatures from getting too chilly like previous nights. Lows are
anticipated to fall only into the 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...Dry conditions continue through Saturday
night with the North Country remaining under high pressure.
Southerly flow and mostly clear skies will help temperatures warm
into the upper 70s/low 80s for most locations with overnight lows
ranging from the upper 40s in typically cooler spots to mid/upper
50s. Cloud cover will be increasing overnight as upper level ridge
becomes pinched between a large offshore upper low and weaker
upstream trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...Some isolated shower chances will be
possible mainly over northern New York and higher terrain of Vermont
Sunday as surface heat combines with weak trough south of the
region. Neutral thermal advection would favor a repeat of upper
70s/low 80s, but spots that get a light shower or extended cloud
cover could end up a few degrees cooler.

A warming trend and position of upper trough will support daily
chances of showers heading into next week. Conditions will feel
uncomfortable by mid week with highs likely reaching the mid/upper
80s and dew points in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. While no
strong forcing is anticipated, shower coverage will increase due to
increasing surface instability under 500mb cyclonic curvature. It
remains to be seen if instability will be sufficient for
thunderstorms, since the upper ridge will subtlety increase sub
subsidence aloft. Late next week, models diverge sharply in
anticipated position and movement of upper level features. EC/NBM
favor the pattern becoming progressive, but models at this time
scale are notorious for moving blocking patterns too quickly. Opted
to increase precipitation chances as system approaches from the
west, but didn`t carry likely chances due to uncertainty in pattern
evolution. Subsequently, kept temperatures warmer than guidance
keeping the heat for at least one more day.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period, except for a short period of IFR/LIFR at KMPV due to
patchy fog. Otherwise clear skies continue into the early
morning hours before giving way to an increasing mid- level
deck around 12-15 kft after 10Z and through much of the day. No
precipitation is expected, and winds will be light overnight,
trending northwesterly at 8-12kts with gusts up to 18-20kts
possible after 14Z.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Storm
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Hastings/Lahiff