571
FXUS61 KBTV 252359
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
759 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and a possible embedded thunderstorm will pass
through tonight. Drier and warmer weather will move in for
Sunday as high pressure briefly returns. Rain showers will
gradually overspread the region on Memorial Day and last into
Tuesday. Behind the storm, cooler weather will prevail for mid
to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 742 PM EDT Saturday...Showers have come through and are
falling apart running into dry air which is in place across the
north country. Precipitation thus far has been extremely light,
and any showers that continue will be inconsequential. Previous
discussion follows.

Clouds are increasing this afternoon and rain showers will
arrive this evening. These will be from a dying occluded front
that will make its way through the region. The steadiest rain
will pass by to the south and it will mostly be some scattered
showers here. Some elevated instability will develop overnight
and a couple of the showers may contain some thunder, but they
will generally be unimpressive. QPF will mostly be under a tenth
of an inch but the areas that see the convective showers will
see a little more. The showers will move out later in the night
and partial clearing will occur. With light winds and plentiful
low- level moisture from the rain in place, patchy fog should
develop.

A warmer and slightly more humid airmass will move in behind
the front for Sunday. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s to
low 80s and dew points will be in the 50s. Daytime heating
could cause isolated showers to develop, mainly over the high
terrain and southeast Vermont. Ridging will briefly build in for
late Sunday and Sunday night, and skies should gradually clear.
The dry weather will be short-lived though as rain showers will
begin to enter the region late Sunday night. These will be out
ahead of a stronger area of low pressure that will impact the
region Monday-Tuesday. Winds will shift to southeasterly and
begin to strengthen later in the night. Lows will therefore
likely be during the middle of the night as the winds will mix
warm air down to the surface and strengthen warm-air advection
and likley cause temperatures to rise. Lows will overall be
mild, with temperatures only dropping into the mid 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...A surface occlusion is expected to
develop across the region on Monday as low pressure matures
across the Great Lakes area. 40-50kt mid-level flow will
transport warm, moist air north. The combination of isentropic
lift and weak elevated instability will drive isolated showers
with a few rumbles of thunder. Abundant cloud cover will keep
conditions a bit cooler, but still on the warm side in addition
to higher dewpoints move into the area. Additionally, the
increased mid-level flow will likely yield some 20 to 30 mph
gusts, locally up to 35 mph on Monday.

The bulk of precipitation will occur Monday evening into the
overnight when sharper surface confluence develops along the
occluded front. The front will be slow to progress east, but a
jet streak will approach to help force it east towards dawn on
Tuesday before it can really outstay its welcome. Areal extent
will decrease with the loss of daytime heating, but never
completely diminish. With the humid air mass, expect mainly mid
50s to lower 60s. The front doesn`t quite clear Vermont until
afternoon, and so showers and storms could develop early before
shifting out. Then showers rotating within the upper low will
reach St. Lawrence County as well. The tongue of dry air
associated with a dry slot will keep the Champlain Valley and
southern Vermont relatively dry on Tuesday. Expect another
seasonably warm day in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...Forecast guidance diverges fairly
quickly beyond Tuesday. The primary source of difference is how
deep the upper low is. The deeper it is, the slower the model
wants to shift it out of the region. Additional pop-up, hit-or-
miss shower activity will be present through the remainder of
the week. Probabilistic data currently suggests Friday and
Saturday have lower chances for precipitation, but as we head
deeper into summer, their skill will suffer as convection
becomes more common place. However, the pattern overall does not
appear likely to be too wet heading into the following week and
CPC does forecast Day 6-10 as drier than normal too. With
general troughiness, it does appear that we will spend a few
days on the cooler side of normal for a few days. Expect mid 60s
for the midweek to trend back into the 70s by the weekend with
40s to 50s overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Aviation focus will be on IFR potential
after 06z at SLK/MSS and MPV. Currently VFR at all sites with
some light rain showers moving from west to east. Additional
showers are possible through 06z, before subsidence/dry air
aloft develops with decreasing threat for rain showers. This
drying will help push moisture toward the surface with a
lowering cloud deck, especially at SLK with some intervals of
IFR vis/cigs possible. Have noted LAMP guidance suggesting fog
at with IFR at MSS, but confidence is lower with probability
<10%, so have used VCFG for now. Otherwise, feel a 10 to 15%
probability of fog/br with ifr is possible around sunrise at
MPV/EFK, but given the clouds and timing after 06z, have not
mention in tafs. Otherwise, VFR redevelops at all sites by 12z
with light trrn driven winds <6 knots prevail thru 00z Monday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Taber