222
FXUS61 KBTV 301121
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
721 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Other than a few possible rain showers over southern Vermont
this morning, dry weather will persist over the next several
days. After a cool start this morning, a steady warming trend is
expected over the weekend and into early next week. Our next
chance of showers doesn`t arrive until Tuesday into Wednesday,
with highs to be in the low to mid 80s by that time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Thursday...No significant changes needed with
this update. Some light rain has made it into southern VT, where
Springfield has picked up only a trace. This should be the
trend this morning; showers will be isolated, light, and
confined to southern Rutland/Windsor Counties for a few hours
this morning before shifting off to the east by afternoon.
Temperatures are quite chilly this morning; KSLK has hit 30F,
while mid/upper 30s are common in much of the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom, and low/mid 40s elsewhere. Clouds blanket
much of the region from the Adirondacks eastward, but these will
also slide eastward this afternoon. The forecast has this all
covered fairly well, so have just made some slight adjustments
to temperatures and PoPs to match the latest trends.

Previous discussion...Off to a cool start this morning with
temperatures currently ranging from the low/mid 30s in the
Adirondacks to low/mid 50s in south central VT. Low pressure
scooting by to our south will keep mid/high clouds draped over the
southern 2/3 of our region through this morning. A few of the
showers associated with this system may make it into far southern
Rutland/Windsor Counties, but overall expect a dry day for the North
Country and Vermont. Sunshine will increase through the afternoon as
the low and cloud cover shift to the east. Ridging will begin to
build in behind the low, keeping conditions dry through Friday.
Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as highs are
expected to reach into the mid 60s to low 70s. Tonight will be
another cool night; the cold hollows in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom could well see patchy frost as they dip into the
mid 30s. Elsewhere, lows will generally be in the 40s. Friday will
feature abundant sunshine with just a few passing clouds. Highs will
be warmer than today in spite of continued northwest flow; afternoon
temperatures will top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 256 AM EDT Thursday...Very quiet weather is in store for the
region Friday nigh through Saturday night as deep layer ridging
builds eastward across the North Country. With the building ridge,
Saturday will mark the beginning of a noticeable warming trend that
will continue well into next week with highs climbing into the mid
70s to lower 80s. Plentiful sunshine is expected on Saturday given
strong subsidence aloft. Those with outdoor plans are in for a treat
this weekend but be sure to dress for to the conditions as
temperatures in the mountains will only warm into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 256 AM EDT Thursday...The warming trend continues Sunday
through the middle of next week with temperatures each day a degree
or two warmer than the last. We have some low hanging fruit in terms
of record high temperatures at Montpelier where we are expected to
be within 3 degrees of record high temperatures on both Monday and
Tuesday. The aforementioned deep layer ridging will begin to shift
eastward by midweek which should allow for increasing cloud cover
Tuesday and Wednesday. The jury remains out on when our next
rainfall chances may occur but the latest 00Z guidance shows that we
could see some showers beginning Tuesday afternoon/evening and
continuing into the second half of next week. These shower
probabilities are solely based on the upper level ridge shifting
eastward and global guidance tries to be too progressive with the
breaking down of blocking patterns so it`s feasible to think the
rain chances may be delayed until later in the week. Stay tuned, but
in the mean time, enjoy some very pleasant weather for early June.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Outside of local IFR/LIFR in patchy fog, VFR
conditions expected to prevail through the entire TAF period.
Mid/high clouds will remain over the region through mid-morning,
but ceilings will remain AOA 4000 ft. Expect fair weather
cumulus to develop around 5000 ft after 15z as high clouds exit
to the east, then skies clearing after sunset. Some localized
fog will be possible in sheltered valleys after 09z Friday, but
have just included vicinity fog at KSLK/KMPV due to uncertainty
as to areal extent. Light and variable winds will increase to 6
to 10 knots out of the north/northwest after 15z, then subside
again by 02z.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Hastings