Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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629 FXUS61 KBTV 291723 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 123 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry conditions are expected today, with just some isolated light showers possible in southern Vermont. These showers will be the last chance for rain for a while as we enter into a dry stretch of weather that will last into early next week. Temperatures will be cooler today and Thursday with some patchy frost possible in the northern Adirondacks tonight and Thursday night. Temperatures will gradually warm into the 80s by late weekend. The next chance for rain won`t come until next Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 117 PM EDT Wednesday...The forecast is progressing smoothly with clouds slowly, but surely scattering. Temperatures have still been slow to climb, and notched high temperatures down a couple degrees. The rest of the forecast is in great shape. Have a wonderful day! Previous discussion...A cold front is moving southward through the area early this morning. The frontal passage is largely a quiet one, with just some widely scattered light showers passing through. Once we get into the later morning hours and the front progresses into southern VT, expect northern counties to remain dry for the rest of the day while southern Vermont will see a 10-30% chance of rain showers this afternoon. A cooler and drier post frontal air mass will work in today. After lows this morning in the mid 40s to mid 50s, high temperatures will only climb into the mid 60s to low 70s. More notably, dewpoints today will be a good 10-15 degrees lower today than what was observed yesterday, so it will feel quite refreshing. The morning will start off mostly cloudy, but breaks in the clouds will develop by midday and the afternoon will be partly sunny. Temperatures tonight will be chilly in the low to mid 40s for most areas. The northern Adirondacks will dip into the 30s, with some of the colder hollows potentially reaching into the low 30s. Conditions are not ideal for radiational cooling, so haven`t gone quite as low as some of the MOS guidance, but wouldn`t be surprised if we see some very localized patches of frost around Saranac Lake. Given that the growing season has started, anyone in the Adirondacks with vulnerable plants should take precautions to protect plants tonight. Thursday will be dry with temperatures again in the mid 60s to low 70s and northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Dewpoints Thursday will drop in to the mid 30s, which will create minimum relative humidities in the 25 to 35 percent range. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 336 AM EDT Wednesday...Ridging will build across the region for the end of the week, keeping the weather dry with seasonable temperatures. Both Friday and Saturday will feature partly to mostly sunny skies. Friday will be the cooler of the two days, with highs in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. Northwest winds will be a touch breezy on Friday, as well. Expect most locations will top out in the 70s on Saturday, with a few spots approaching 80F. Thursday and Friday night will be on the cool side as temperatures will dip into the 40s areawide. Some of the more cold-prone sheltered locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom will likely see temperatures in the mid/upper 30s both nights. Flow start to turn toward the southwest Saturday night as the ridge axis shifts east of our area, so lows won`t be as cool as the previous nights; mid 40s to mid 50s are expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 336 AM EDT Wednesday...Ridging will start to break down early next week as a series of upper shortwaves traverse across southern Canada/northeastern CONUS. While exact details are hard to pinpoint this far out, overall these disturbances look fairly weak with little in the way of deep moisture. Hence expect dry weather to persist through at least Monday. A warm front will lift across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, which may spark some showers, mainly in the afternoon. Temperatures will exhibit a slight warming trend through this period, with highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s areawide by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...Clouds are slowly scattering out, but bases around 2000-3000 ft agl are resulting in intervals of MVFR cigs, mainly at KBTV, KMPV, and KSLK, as well as summits in and out of clouds. Ceilings should trend upwards and skies becoming mostly clear. North to northwest winds of 4 to 9 knots sustained are likely and brief gusts up to 15 knots are possible through 22z-00z. Mainly clear skies and light to terrain driven flow is expected tonight. Some fog may develop in river valleys, but 10-15 knot winds at 300-500 ft agl may prevent formation, and for now have just noted VCFG in KEFK, KMPV, and KSLK from about 09z to 13z. North to northwest winds increase to 6 to 10 knots beyond 13z with mid clouds around 7000-12000 ft agl, mainly in southern Vermont. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Duell/Haynes SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Haynes