233
FXUS61 KBUF 301829
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
229 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny but cool today...frost will be possible in areas tonight well
inland from the lakes in the typical colder locales. Warmer Friday
and Saturday but dry. The next chance of showers or thunderstorms
arrives Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some fair weather cu will be found over the area this afternoon.

Otherwise...sunny with light northerly flow of 5 to 15 mph and cool
today.

Tonight...the main concern will be low temps. With largely clear
skies expected temps to fall back into the 40s, and in the colder
spots into the mid and upper 30s.

Frost potential...

Given dwpts in the 30s with clear skies and light winds good
radiational cooling will take place. Have issued a frost advisory
for southern Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany
County. The typical colder spots will be the most vulnerable...it
would be wise to bring in any sensitive plants.

Elsewhere...a shortwave clipping our eastern forecast area (North
Country) may bring in enough moisture (high clouds) to limit the
frost potential. Right now...overall confidence is pretty low but
still take precautions.

Friday...high pressure will drift into the area providing sun-filled
skies and warming temps. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level ridge axis centered over the eastern Great Lakes Friday
night will advance east towards the Northeast Saturday. Meanwhile,
mid-level closed low over northern Manitoba will allow a shortwave
trough to rotate through the base of the low, passing by to the
northwest of the area Sunday.

With the mid-level ridge axis passing east, the surface high
pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Friday night, will drift
southeast toward the Atlantic coastline by Saturday night. Overall
this will support the dry conditions to persist through the first
half of the weekend.

Saturday night and Sunday, the aforementioned shortwave will have
weakened, though its remnants will sweep across the area. As a
result a weak cold front will slide across the area from west to
east late Saturday night through Sunday supporting a chance of
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Despite the showers, Sunday
will not be a complete washout as there will be plenty of rain-free
time.

The next upper level ridge will then support high pressure to slide
over the region Sunday night through Monday night supporting the
return of dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next potent upper level trough will slide across the upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, before becoming
stagnant over the Great Lakes Thursday allowing multiple shortwaves
to round its base. While this pattern will create some uncertainty
in the forecast for the middle and later portions of next week, the
initial introduction of the trough will support a surface low over
northern Quebec to drop a surface cold front across the region
supporting a chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.

With the aforementioned shortwaves rounding the base of the trough,
another surface low will track northeast from the Central Plains to
the upper Midwest Wednesday and Thursday. Attendant surface warm and
cold fronts will then slide across the region during this time
introducing the chance for some showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fair weather cu will be present but VFR will continue through this
entire TAF cycle.

Tonight...VFR for all TAF sites. While there will be some fog in the
Southern Tier valleys, a drier airmass will limit its coverage.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for a shower across the
Southern Tier.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northerly flow will bring some modest chop to the lakes
today.

Winds will back to westerly later Thursday...and then eventually
become light and variable Friday into the weekend as the surface
high crests over the Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR