953
FXUS65 KBYZ 052044
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
244 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday night...

Current analysis shows a tight 500 mb height gradient with NW flow
over MT and north WY with ridging over the Pac. NW coast. With
current 700 mb winds showing max winds of 40-45 kts over southeast
MT and model soundings decreasing winds through the day, a slow
downward trend for winds is expected through the afternoon. Gusts
of 40-45 mph for southeast MT will continue through the
afternoon, tapering of after sunset. The High Wind Warning for
Custer, Fallon and Carter counties remains in effect. Winds in the
west have generally been lower today and will decrease through
the remainder of the day as well. For Thursday, conditions will be
warm and dry with heights building in from the west. Winds will
not be impactful with NW gusts of 20 mph most likely (70-90%) for
far southeast MT. High temperatures will be in the 70s today with
70s and low 80s for Thursday. Low temperatures will be in the 40s
Thursday morning. TS


Friday through Wednesday...

Friday through Saturday, we will be under a WNW flow aloft with
above normal heights. The combination of troughing off the CA
coast and a weak low near Baja will result in a monsoon-like
increase in moisture underneath the western CONUS ridge...to the
point that precipitable water values over WA/OR/ID/WY will be 1-3
standard deviations above normal. This will lead to at least a
slight (20%) chance of diurnal weak thunderstorms over our
southern mountains & foothills. However, latest models have
trended a bit more confluent with the 500mb flow over MT, courtesy
of troughing from northern Alberta/Saskatchewan to the Great
Lakes. This trend is drier for us as it keeps the deeper moisture
suppressed, and it is also a bit cooler as we bring in
backdooring NE-E winds. The latest forecast is thus slightly
cooler and drier in our region on these days.

Plenty of model spread exists Sunday & Monday, with regard to
aforementioned troughing to our northeast and a weak Pacific
shortwave. It is possible that our precip chances remain somewhat
suppressed, or we could be looking at a Pacific trough passage
and one or two days of at least a 30% chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Even with the uncertainty, the late Sunday through
Monday period is the favored one for potential QPF among the
ensembles. There is consensus for building heights and dry
conditions by next Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain above normal but not in an extreme sense.
Look for upper 70s to mid 80s Friday, then mid 70s to lower 80s
Saturday-Monday. Next Tuesday should see temps back into the 80s.
Cannot rule out our first taste of 90F by the middle of next week
if current model trends hold.

As we mentioned yesterday, we may evolve into a pattern more
favorable for severe weather toward the end of next week, perhaps
beginning around the 13th or 14th, as troffing sets up over the
PacNW and a ridge for the northern plains.

JKL/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

West/northwesterly winds will gust to 30-45 kt this afternoon
across much of the area. Surface winds will diminish this
evening, mainly by 03z Thursday. LLWS expected near KBHK overnight
before 09z Thursday. VFR will prevail through the TAF period. RMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/081 055/082 053/079 053/079 055/081 056/084 057/087
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/W    11/U    11/U
LVM 045/084 051/083 049/080 050/078 051/081 051/082 052/085
    00/U    01/U    01/U    03/W    34/T    21/U    11/U
HDN 046/081 052/083 051/079 052/082 053/081 054/084 056/088
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/W    21/U    11/U
MLS 046/078 050/081 051/075 049/078 052/078 054/083 056/087
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 048/078 052/083 052/077 051/077 052/080 054/083 057/087
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/W    21/U    11/U
BHK 044/075 047/081 046/074 045/074 047/077 051/082 053/086
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    11/U    11/U
SHR 045/079 052/081 050/078 051/078 051/079 051/080 053/085
    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    23/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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