Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
160 FXUS65 KBYZ 040928 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 328 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .UPDATE... Snow showers and gusty winds along the Beartooth Highway have diminished. As a result, the Winter Weather Advisory has been ended. Matos && .DISCUSSION... Today through Wednesday... Lingering snow showers and gusty winds along the Beartooth Pass have resulted in adverse travel conditions since last evening. As result, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 9AM. These showers and winds are expected to diminish by early morning. In the wake of yesterday`s frontal passage, increasing winds and gusts are filling into the forecast area today. The windiest areas will be out west where several highlights are in effect or will go into effect later this morning. Wind gusts of 50-65 mph are expected for Judith Gap, Southern Wheatland County, Melville Foothills, and Northern Sweet Grass County. A Wind Advisory will go into effect at 6AM this morning for the Beartooth Foothills and the Livingston area, with gusts up to 60 mph expected. Another period of gusty winds is anticipated on Wednesday in the eastern areas, with strong 700mb winds in place. Low level lapse rates in the range of 6-9 C/km are shown in the latest model soundings. Along with these mid-level winds and steep lapse rates, there will be ample descent over Northern Rosebud, Custer, Powder River, Fallon, and Carter counties. Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening, the NBM has wind speeds in the 25-35 mph range along with wind gusts approaching 60 mph. Because of this, we have issued a High Wind Watch for the aforementioned counties beginning 6AM MDT Wednesday and ending 6PM MDT Wednesday. Upper level ridging will continue to build across the Northern Rockies through Wednesday, resulting in warming temperatures and drier conditions. High temperatures will be in the 70s today and tomorrow. Matos Wednesday Night through Monday... Winds will finally die down Wednesday night as troffing to our northeast departs and surface high pressure builds from the northwest. Building upper level ridge will then bring dry conditions through early Friday. The combination of a fairly strong ridge over the western CONUS and weak lows off the CA coast and near Baja will allow for monsoon-like moisture to spread northward under the ridge. Temperatures Friday through Sunday will be above normal, but more importantly, the mid and upper level moisture (w/ pwats climbing above normal) should be enough for diurnal weak thunderstorms each of these days. The main risk will be over our southern mountains and foothills initially, but could spread northward to include much of our area by Sunday. Do not see a severe risk on any of these days, per the weak flow aloft, but gusty and erratic outflow boundaries will probably be a theme w/ this convection. By Monday, we could see height falls with a weak Pacific trof and an increased chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. Ensemble analysis shows Monday as the favored time for potential meaningful QPF, as well as cooler temperatures. The string of warmer than normal days (and above freezing temps at night) will promote mountain snow melt and increased flows on rivers and streams for the end of the week and through the weekend. Flooding is not expected, but folks will want to stay aware of the higher water levels. For anyone wondering where our severe thunderstorm +season is, there are subtle signs of a more convective-looking pattern by the middle of June, with a PacNW trof and southwest flow extending thru the northern Rockies and high plains. JKL && .AVIATION... Scattered showers east of KBIL will continue to track eastward and exit our area by around 12z this morning. Dry conditions with widespread VFR will persist today and tonight. The main aviation hazard over the next 24 hours is wind. Look for W-NW winds gusting to 40-55 knots along the western foothills (KLVM-K6S0-KHWQ), and 30-45 knots elsewhere. Highest gusts east of the foothills will be from mid morning until sunset. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 075 055/077 049/081 055/085 057/083 058/085 057/077 0/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 01/U 12/T 34/T LVM 071 053/077 046/084 053/085 053/083 054/082 053/076 1/N 00/N 00/U 01/U 11/B 13/T 55/T HDN 076 053/076 046/080 052/086 056/085 056/086 056/078 1/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 10/U 11/U 34/T MLS 073 055/072 046/078 051/085 054/082 055/084 055/076 1/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 33/T 4BQ 073 055/072 046/078 052/085 055/083 056/085 056/077 5/W 00/N 00/U 00/U 10/U 11/U 33/T BHK 071 051/071 044/075 048/082 051/080 051/080 051/074 3/W 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 33/T SHR 074 050/074 044/080 052/085 054/081 054/084 054/075 3/W 00/N 00/U 00/U 12/T 22/T 44/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...High Wind Watch in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon FOR ZONES 31>33-37. High Wind Warning in effect until noon MDT Wednesday FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228. Wind Advisory in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONES 65-66. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings